Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

Abstract

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.climate change | food security | vulnerability | future scenarios | policy A chieving food security under climate change is a complex public policy issue, a so-called "wicked problem." The magnitude of plausible impacts, and costs of inaction or delayed action, mean that individuals and societies must undertake adaptation actions despite uncertainty. Policymakers are accustomed to making decisions under considerable uncertainty and do not necessarily need systematic reductions in uncertainty to act on climate change (1). Nonetheless, science can make a major contribution by elucidating or prioritizing uncertainties in ways that are helpful to the decision-making processes of national policymakers and other stakeholders (2-4). The purpose of this article is to demonstrate how science can provide practical approaches to addressing uncertainty that can assist adaptation planning for agriculture in developing countries over multiple lead times. We achieve this goal by presenting four case studies linked by a framework that combines a simple uncertainty analysis with a characterization of different approaches to adaptation planning. Impact and Capacity Approaches to Adaptation PlanningAdaptation planning can incorporate scientific information both from projections of climatic impacts and assessments of adaptive capacity (Fig. 1). Impact approaches (5, 6) use statistical or mechanistic models to attach probabilities to possible outcomes under a range of scenarios; they arrive at adaptation options for agriculture and food security via analyses that start with climate forcings and global circulation models, and from these project progressive impacts on local climates, crop physiology, crop yi...

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