Adaptive, Resilient Urban Underground Space (UUS)-Subsidence and Economic Impact Spatial Planning Model (USEM): The Extent Development Impact via Cause-Effect Analysis Circa 1980-2050 in Shanghai Megacity

Abstract

There are multiple factors determined causing the land subsidence (e.g. man-made and natural-climate change) which have impact on the urban built environment economic spectrum e.g. buildings, properties, infrastructures and land. This paper presents the cause-effect investigation of the causing factors which influence the direct-indirect impacting urban economic factor via multi-regression analysis using Shanghai megacity as case study. Factors are selected based on existing UUS-subsidence-economic impact (USEM) framework as well as modification and adaptation from Shanghai Masterplan 2017-2035 (SM 2035) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030. Data are gathered secondarily via open sources e.g. scientific journal articles and reports. The results are parallel to previous studies on the current trend for rapid and unconscious UUS exploration development including tunneling seepage and leakage as leading causes for further land subsidence in Shanghai. A further concrete multi-integrated macro-scale USEM’s awareness and knowledge is needed to avoid future costlier damage. The highly regressed causing factors include increasing population, UUS-induced subsidence, underground tunnel leakage, cumulative UUS development and subsidence whereas building prices, reconstruction area ratio, land price, green buildings, tunnel settlement, loss of arable land, number of death and government revenue are the among the most impacted. Officials in Shanghai may further consider results for future USEM masterplans to prevent further unsustainability. It is also found that developing megacity may possess different factors according to their distinct condition.

Adaptive, Resilient Urban Underground Space (UUS)-Subsidence and Economic Impact Spatial Planning Model (USEM): The Extent Development Impact via Cause-Effect and Spatiotemporal Analyses Circa 1960-2020-2050 in Shanghai Megacity

“…As a rapidly growing coastal megacity, Shanghai is continuously threatened with land subsidence issues since 1920s [12,21]. Starting in 1960s, land subsidence was controlled through groundwater banning in the urban area, however in 1990s, unconscious and dangerous urban underground space (UUS) exploration and tunneling development are causing further land subsidence [22][23][24] (refer Figure 3). The UUS exploration, land subsidence, economic impact and spatial modelling is a complex multidisciplinary field of research.…”