Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making

Walker, Warren E.; Rahman, S. Adnan; Cave, Jonathan

doi:10.1016/s0377-2217(00)00071-0

Cited by 337 publications

(225 citation statements)

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“…In contrast to the predict-then-act optimal approach, the adaptive approach can be characterized in several ways [8]. First, it does not require that all uncertainties be resolved before a policy can be designed and implemented.…”

Section: B Adaptive Policy Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Policy Design to Reduce Carbon Emissions: A System-of-Systems Perspective

Agusdinata

Dittmar

2009

IEEE Systems Journal

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Abstract-This paper presents an adaptive policy design approach based on a system-of-systems (SoS) perspective. Using a case of carbon emissions reduction in the residential sector, the SoS perspective is used as a way to structure the policy issue into interdependent relevant systems. This representation of the system provides a framework to test a large number of hypotheses about the evolution of the system's performance using computational experiments. In particular, in a situation where the realized emission level misses the intermediate target, policies can be adapted to meet the policy target. Our approach shows the different policy designs that decision-makers can envision to influence the overall system performance.Index Terms-Adaptive policy design, carbon emission reduction, household emissions, system-of-systems.

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Section: B Adaptive Policy Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptive Policy Design to Reduce Carbon Emissions: A System-of-Systems Perspective

Agusdinata

Dittmar

2009

IEEE Systems Journal

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“…By contrast, Lewis and Clark's planning "acknowledges that many alternative course of action and forks in the road will appear, but their precise character and timing cannot be anticipated." Thus, very uncertain situations call for robust plans (which will succeed in a variety of situations) (Lempert and Schlesinger, 2000) or adaptive plans (which can be easily modified to fit the situations encountered) (Walker, Cave, and Rahman, 2001). For example, in the case of applying the precautionary principle, the level of uncertainty and ignorance should be accounted for by deciding on an appropriate level of proof as the basis for decisions to act or not act, if there is potential for large-scale and/or irreversible harm from an activity or a chemical (EEA, 2001).…”

Section: Model Outcome Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

Jong

Daly

Pieters³

et al. 2006

Transportation

101

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PrefaceThe objectives of the project 'Uncertainty in traffic forecasts' that RAND Europe carried out for the Transport Research Centre of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management were:To develop a methodology to estimate the amount of uncertainty in forecasting for new infrastructure (especially roads).To implement and test this methodology in two case-studies (using the Dutch National Model system LMS and the New Regional Models NRM respectively).This report presents the outcomes of all phases of this project:Literature review for public projects;Literature review for public-private partnership (PPP) projects; Development of a method to quantify the uncertainty in traffic forecasts for the LMS and NRM;Outcomes from a large number (100) of model runs with the LMS to derive uncertainty margins around the mean traffic forecasts;Outcomes from a large number (100) of model runs with the NRM for the Dutch province of Noord-Brabant to derive uncertainty margins around the mean traffic forecasts.This report was written for modellers with an interest in the uncertainty margins around the model forecasts and methods to quantify the uncertainty margins.RAND Europe is an independent not-for-profit policy research organisation that serves the public interest by improving policymaking and informing public debate. This report has been peer-reviewed in accordance with RAND's quality assurance standards (see

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“…These uncertainties are related to the progression of the technology development and emissions standards for diesel buses, i.e., the pace at which they will become more stringent and the development of technology over time. Numerous strategies can be employed to face this uncertainty (Walker et al 2001;Kim and Sanders 2002), including delay of decision, do further research, implement a flexible solution, implement a robust solution, take incremental steps by implementing a solution that builds on the existing competencies, etc. This paper focuses on Brisbane Transport as a case study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investment Decision Making for Alternative Fuel Public Transport Buses: The Case of Brisbane Transport

Patil¹,

Herder²,

Brown³

2010

JPT

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Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making

Cited by 337 publications

References 1 publication

Adaptive Policy Design to Reduce Carbon Emissions: A System-of-Systems Perspective

Adaptive Policy Design to Reduce Carbon Emissions: A System-of-Systems Perspective

Uncertainty in traffic forecasts: literature review and new results for The Netherlands

Investment Decision Making for Alternative Fuel Public Transport Buses: The Case of Brisbane Transport

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