Adaptive authoritarianism

Frear, Matthew

doi:10.4324/9780203737910-2

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

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“…Conversely, we expected better educated and wealthier respondents, and people living in the west of the country (Grodno and Brest oblasts) as well as in the Minsk agglomeration to show higher levels of support for European Union membership. Belarus has been denoted as a "highly distinctive model of semi-peripheral capitalism ... in which economic and political power does not, fundamentally, lie with private capital but with a bureaucratic-paternalist state apparatus (Buzgalin and Kolgonov, 2021, 443), an emphasis also in Frear (2019). Because of this unusual political-economic structure, we expected that the usual cleavages along classincome and ideological lines would somewhat blurred when compared to other Central-Eastern European countries or even some post-Soviet states such as Georgia and Ukraine.…”

Section: Expectations About Trade Bloc Alignment Preferencementioning

confidence: 99%

The geopolitical orientations of ordinary Belarusians: survey evidence from early 2020

Ο’Loughlin

Toal

2022

Post-Soviet Affairs

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collaborated on the survey instrument design and overall project management. Thanks are due to David Sichinava (Caucasus Research Resources Center, Tbilisi) who worked assiduously with a leading Belarusian survey company to program the questionnaire and implement the survey according to the comparative research design. We receive helpful comments from Olga Onuch, Gwendolyn Sasse and Fyodor Popov on an earlier draft of the paper.

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Section: Expectations About Trade Bloc Alignment Preferencementioning

confidence: 99%

The geopolitical orientations of ordinary Belarusians: survey evidence from early 2020

Ο’Loughlin

Toal

2022

Post-Soviet Affairs

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“…The shift in the politics of Belarusian identity that occurred in recent years became perceived as an indication of “soft Belarusization” (Mojeiko 2015; Frear 2018; Posokhin 2019). It aims at stressing the distinct status of the Belarusian nation without antagonizing the positive image of Soviet past or declaring a course on strategic de-Russification.…”

Section: Symbolic Shiftsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reassembling Society in a Nation-State: History, Language, and Identity Discourses of Belarus

Bekus

2022

Nationalities Papers

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The article examines the political and cultural processes of nation-building over thirty years of independence in Belarus. It argues that in becoming a nation-state Belarus has faced challenges similar to the other post-Soviet nations but has proved an exception in the choice of strategies it used to address them. The paper examines how, on the eve of independence, the nationalist elites devised policies aimed at consolidating statehood around the national revival in opposition to the Soviet past. It explores the role played by linguistic policy and historical memory as the two main arenas for implementing their visions of Belarusian identity. The paper then maps a shift in this trajectory from Lukashenka’s rise to power to a national project based on reappropriation of Soviet legacy. Up until 2020, the state effectively navigated a geopolitical environment and adjusted its sociocultural parameters to preempt the society’s shifting expectations. Finally, the paper reflects on how protests in 2020 demonstrated both the lack of support for Lukashenka and his reliance on the violent repression and external support for remaining in power. The war in Ukraine revealed limits of Belarus’s sovereignty, while the society’s ability to consolidate for its defense has been seriously undermined by the repression.

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“…Moreover, Lukashenka's regime proved highly adaptive for over a quarter of a century (Frear 2019). It dealt particularly harshly with the opposition after each presidential election (Ash 2015).…”

Section: Low Regime Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…His staffing decisions were designed to prevent ambitious politicians from emerging and positioning themselves as feasible alternatives to his leadership. Thus, he refrained from appointing prominent figures to high political positions, pursued a policy of “cadre rotation,” and initiated criminal trials against officials from time to time, mostly for corruption (Frear 2019, ch. 4; Shraibman 2018).…”

Section: Regime and Opposition On The Eve Of The 2020 Presidential El...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Making Sense of a Surprise: Perspectives on the 2020 “Belarusian Revolution”

Stykow¹

2022

Nationalities Papers

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Drawing on three theoretical perspectives—“protest-democracy,” “authoritarian/patronal regime dynamics,” and “contentious politics”—developed in the study of popular protests in post-Soviet electoral autocracies, this article argues, first, that the 2020 postelection mobilization in Belarus was not to be expected for both structural and agency-related reasons. Second, by the summer of 2020, the political opportunity structure had opened up because of contingent choices by individual actors, with Alyaksandr Lukashenka committing several major mistakes, particularly on pandemic (non)control and the administration of the upcoming presidential election, and political newcomers taking on the role of challenging him. After the election, mass mobilization unfolded in two waves triggered by two additional regime mistakes: blatant electoral fraud and excessive repression. These mistakes served as focal points for spontaneous coordination, substituting for the deliberate “engineering” of protest by an organized opposition typical of the post-Soviet color revolutions. Third, Lukashenka survived in office because popular protests did not lead to elite defection. Instead, he was able to secure the loyalty of elites because he avoided gross blunders against both regime insiders and Russia. The case of Belarus indicates that hegemonic-authoritarian regimes are more vulnerable to mistakes by incumbents than to challenges from below and outside the regime.

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Adaptive authoritarianism

Cited by 8 publications

References 0 publications

The geopolitical orientations of ordinary Belarusians: survey evidence from early 2020

The geopolitical orientations of ordinary Belarusians: survey evidence from early 2020

Reassembling Society in a Nation-State: History, Language, and Identity Discourses of Belarus

Making Sense of a Surprise: Perspectives on the 2020 “Belarusian Revolution”

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