Making Sense of a Surprise: Perspectives on the 2020 “Belarusian Revolution”

Abstract

Drawing on three theoretical perspectives—“protest-democracy,” “authoritarian/patronal regime dynamics,” and “contentious politics”—developed in the study of popular protests in post-Soviet electoral autocracies, this article argues, first, that the 2020 postelection mobilization in Belarus was not to be expected for both structural and agency-related reasons. Second, by the summer of 2020, the political opportunity structure had opened up because of contingent choices by individual actors, with Alyaksandr Lukashenka committing several major mistakes, particularly on pandemic (non)control and the administration of the upcoming presidential election, and political newcomers taking on the role of challenging him. After the election, mass mobilization unfolded in two waves triggered by two additional regime mistakes: blatant electoral fraud and excessive repression. These mistakes served as focal points for spontaneous coordination, substituting for the deliberate “engineering” of protest by an organized opposition typical of the post-Soviet color revolutions. Third, Lukashenka survived in office because popular protests did not lead to elite defection. Instead, he was able to secure the loyalty of elites because he avoided gross blunders against both regime insiders and Russia. The case of Belarus indicates that hegemonic-authoritarian regimes are more vulnerable to mistakes by incumbents than to challenges from below and outside the regime.

State Violence and Pains of Punishment: Experiences of Incarcerated Women in Belarus in the Aftermath of the 2020 Protests

“…In Belarus in the summer of 2020, mass protests against the authoritarian incumbent Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the state violence used to oppress these protesters attracted a lot of international attention. They inspired an extensive body of academic research focused on post-electoral protest and mobilization (Onuch et al 2023;Way and Tolvin 2023;Stykow 2023;Douglas 2023;Moshes and Nizhnikau 2021;Bedford 2021, and others). The ongoing political repression in Belarus is not only distressing from a humanitarian perspective, but is also highly instructive in numerous aspects, especially those pertaining to the civic activism of women and female-targeted repression by an authoritarian state.…”

The Dynamics of Mass Mobilization in Belarus

“…The case of the 2020 mass mobilization in Belarus offers an opportunity to engage with and answer these questions in a reciprocal dialogue between scholars of protest and activism, politics of competitive authoritarian and democratizing contexts, and regional and country experts. This symposium brings together a diverse set of scholar and combines comparative and case-specific analyses, empirically driven and interpretive analyses that focus on different political, social, and cultural angles of this episode of mass mobilization and its aftermath (Bekus 2023; Douglas 2023; Elsner 2023; Hansen and Ford 2023; Korosteleva and Petrova 2023; Kulakevich and Kubik 2023; Stykow 2023; Onuch et al 2023; Way and Tolvin 2023).…”