Adapting to crop pest and pathogen risks under a changing climate

Abstract

The need for pest and pathogen management will increase as the intensification of food production proceeds to feed the burgeoning human population. Climate is a significant driver of pest population dynamics, so climate change will require adaptive management strategies to cope with the altered status of pests and pathogens. A hierarchy of analytical tools is required to conduct risk assessments, inform policy and design pest management on scales from regions to landscapes and fields. Such tools include models for predicting potential geographical distributions, seasonal phenology, and population dynamics at a range of spatial and temporal scales. The level of sophistication of such models and databases will be determined by the economic importance of specific species. Many obstacles remain in the way of designing reliable adaptation strategies, and several issues that ensure continuing uncertainty are discussed. Holistic approaches that include nonclimatic drivers of change are needed to address the combination of global change variables. Changed patterns of crop production will determine the pests and pathogens that require greater effort to control. Linked crop-pest models offer the best opportunities for management of important pests and pathogens. Examples of risk assessments for pests and pathogens are illustrated mostly with cases from Australia, and guidelines for adaptation of pest and pathogen management are reviewed. The plethora of species and strains of pests and pathogens demands a parsimonious approach to risk assessment and adaptation, based on identified needs to inform management. Due to some intractable issues the best approach may often be scenario planning to design systems which will be resilient under any global change. 

Impacts of climate change on plant diseases—opinions and trends

“…Plant health is predicted to generally suffer under climate change through a variety of mechanisms, from accelerated pathogen evolution and shorter incubation periods to enhanced abiotic stress due to mismatches between ecosystems and their climate and the more frequent occurrence of extreme weather events (Chakraborty and Datta 2003;Chakraborty 2005;Ghini et al 2011b;Sutherst et al 2011). Drought is expected to lead to increased frequency of tree pathogens, mainly through indirect effects on host physiology (Desprez- Loustau et al 2006).…”

Climate change and potential future risks through wheat diseases: a review

“…In addition, the literature on viral and particularly bacterial wheat diseases with respect to climate change is extremely limited (Juroszek and von Tiedemann 2011;. In this review information on the two major climate factors, temperature and humidity is compiled (note: complementary information on these two climate factors are contained in some previous review articles such as Coakley et al 1999;Garrett et al 2006, andSutherst et al 2011), whereas atmospheric factors such as CO 2 and ozone (O 3 ) are not considered. Information on the likely effects of elevated CO 2 and O 3 on plant-pathogen interactions can be found in previous review articles (Manning and von Tiedemann 1995;Eastburn et al 2011;Pangga et al 2011).…”

“…range expansion or retreat, and increased risk of pathogen invasion) (e.g. Chakraborty et al 2000;Melloy et al 2010;Sutherst et al 2011;Ghini et al 2012;Pangga et al 2012;Pautasso et al 2012;Siebold and von Tiedemann 2012a;West et al 2012a; Fitt et al 2011;Garrett et al 2011;Hakala et al 2011;Luck et al 2011;Magan et al 2011;Roos et al 2011;Savary et al 2011;West et al 2012a;. Moreover, there is an increasing number of articles which focus on particular wheat diseases in relation to climate change, e.g.…”

Cambio climático y plagas: algo más que el clima

“…Pero sí lo está gestionar adecuadamente la estructura de un pinar, de lo que a su vez depende la probabilidad de incidencia de plagas, haga el clima que haga. Esto nos permitiría dotarnos de ecosistemas más resilientes frente a las condiciones climáticas que nos esperan en el futuro (Sutherst et al 2011), pero para eso tenemos que empezar a conseguirlos ya.…”