Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the 20th Century

Barreca, Alan I.; Clay, Karen; Deschênes, Olivier; Greenstone, Michael; Shapiro, Joseph

doi:10.3386/w18692

Cited by 74 publications

(67 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The major technological adaptation to hot weather in the U.S. is the invention and adoption of air conditioning, which accounted for 80% of the substantial national decline in heat-related deaths during the 20th century [60]. Urban mortality studies have shown that air conditioning is an important preventative factor against heat deaths [61].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

Harlan

Chowell

Yang

et al. 2014

IJERPH

101

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In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (ATmax) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (ATmax = 90–97 °F; 32.2‒36.1 °C) were below local median seasonal temperatures in the study period (ATmax = 99.5 °F; 37.5 °C). Heat threshold was defined as ATmax at which the mortality ratio begins an exponential upward trend. Thresholds were identified in younger and older females for cardiac disease/stroke mortality (ATmax = 106 and 108 °F; 41.1 and 42.2 °C) with a one-day lag. Thresholds were also identified for mortality from respiratory diseases in older people (ATmax = 109 °F; 42.8 °C) and for all-cause mortality in females (ATmax = 107 °F; 41.7 °C) and males <65 years (ATmax = 102 °F; 38.9 °C). Heat-related mortality in a region that has already made some adaptations to predictable periods of extremely high temperatures suggests that more extensive and targeted heat-adaptation plans for climate change are needed in cities worldwide.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

Harlan

Chowell

Yang

et al. 2014

IJERPH

101

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“…While much research has gone into analyzing the effects of air-conditioning [34,36], we did not include this variable because its prevalence is quite low, electricity supply is irregular across the country, and approximately 300 million people have no power connection. However, many of the household amenities assessed require electricity and can serve as a proxy for electricity supply.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India

Azhar

Saha

Ganguly

et al. 2017

IJERPH

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Assessing geographic variability in heat wave vulnerability forms the basis for planning appropriate targeted adaptation strategies. Given several recent deadly heatwaves in India, heat is increasingly being recognized as a public health problem. However, to date there has not been a country-wide assessment of heat vulnerability in India. We evaluated demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental vulnerability factors and combined district level data from several sources including the most recent census, health reports, and satellite remote sensing data. We then applied principal component analysis (PCA) on 17 normalized variables for each of the 640 districts to create a composite Heat Vulnerability Index (HVI) for India. Of the total 640 districts, our analysis identified 10 and 97 districts in the very high and high risk categories (> 2SD and 2-1SD HVI) respectively. Mapping showed that the districts with higher heat vulnerability are located in the central parts of the country. On examination, these are less urbanized and have low rates of literacy, access to water and sanitation, and presence of household amenities. Therefore, we concluded that creating and mapping a heat vulnerability index is a useful first step in protecting the public from the health burden of heat. Future work should incorporate heat exposure and health outcome data to validate the index, as well as examine sub-district levels of vulnerability.

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“…Their identification strategy relied on the presumed random year-to-year local variation in temperature (Deschênes and Greenstone 2011), but does not address acute episodes. Using an econometric model, Barreca et al found that the mortality effect of an extremely hot day declined by approximately 80% between 1900-1959 and 1960-2004 in United States (Barreca et al 2013). However, that analysis was conducted at the state level, and with only monthly mortality statistics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing patterns of the temperature–mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change

Nordio

Zanobetti²,

Colicino³

et al. 2015

Environment International

117

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The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-years periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lag 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27°C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-hr temperature of 27°C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.

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Adapting to Climate Change: The Remarkable Decline in the U.S. Temperature-Mortality Relationship over the 20th Century

Cited by 74 publications

References 14 publications

Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

Heat-Related Deaths in Hot Cities: Estimates of Human Tolerance to High Temperature Thresholds

Heat Wave Vulnerability Mapping for India

Changing patterns of the temperature–mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change

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