Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.05.057

Cited by 20 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Mu et al. (, ) estimated reduced‐form models of U.S. crop and pasture land allocation as a nonlinear function of weather during 1987–2007 and 1982–2012, respectively. Rashford et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…So, relocating cropping to less central latitudes would be a viable adaptation response to the detrimental yield impacts of global warming. Several studies have also modeled cropland use change as a function of weather, crop and livestock returns, and government payments (Cho & McCarl, 2017;Kaminski, Kan, & Fleischer, 2013;Mu, McCarl, Sleeter, Abatzoglou, & Zhang, 2018;Mu, McCarl, & Wein, 2013;Mu, Sleeter, Abatzoglou, & Antle, 2017;Rashford et al, 2016). Kaminski et al (2013) estimated a structural model to assess climate impacts on Israel's cropland use changes during 1992-2001.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The resulting weather-driven yields provided crop-specific profit expectations, which were then utilized to estimate cropland use shares as a function of own profits. Mu et al (2013Mu et al ( , 2018) estimated reduced-form models of U.S. crop and pasture land allocation as a nonlinear function of weather during 1987and 1982, respectively. Rashford et al (2016 and Cho and McCarl (2017) estimated similar land use models for multiple crops during 1982-1997and 1970, respectively.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Arora

Feng

Anderson³

et al. 2020

Agricultural Economics

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Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop‐specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather‐driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present‐day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Arora

Feng

Anderson³

et al. 2020

Agricultural Economics

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“…Climate is a major factor in choice of crop mix and land use [1][2][3]. For example, rice is typically grown in hot and wet areas while wheat appears in cooler and drier areas [4,5].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Understanding how climate factors have shaped crop mixes in the past and in turn projecting anticipated changes as the climate evolves can help inform agricultural research, infrastructure development, and trade needs. More directly, this study can also help issue early warnings on (1) places where adaptation efforts are needed, (2) types of adaptations to pursue, (3) future prospects for regional food production, and (4) changes in rural income potential.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration

Zhang

Musumba

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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A prominent agricultural adaptation to climate change consists in shifting crop mixes toward the poles or upward in elevation. This paper examines the extent to which climate factors have shifted regional crop mixes in China and forecasts how future crop mixes might change under selected climate scenarios. Using a data set that provides planted area shares for each crop in each mainland Chinese province from 2001 to 2013, we employ a fractional multinomial logit (FMLOGIT) model to examine the influence of climate on regional crop mixes under historical as well as future climate conditions. Results show that temperature increases are projected to raise the incidence of wheat and tubers while reducing that for rice and maize, which is conventional food security crops. Moreover, cash crops such as vegetables and orchards and fiber-producing crops will increase, whereas oil-bearing crops and specialty crops will decrease. This paper is the first of its kind to examine climate impacts on the regional portfolio of crop mixes across Mainland China. The findings have important implications for foreseeing needed efforts to maintain food production in the face of future climate change and pointing out cases where adaptation efforts may be desirable.

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Representative agricultural pathways, climate change, and agricultural land uses: an application to the Pacific Northwest of the USA

Antle

Abatzoglou

2019

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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This paper investigates climate change adaptation through agricultural land uses under three regional representative agricultural pathways, using data from the Pacific Northwest of the United States of America. The three pathways are bottom-up projections of local biophysical and socioeconomic conditions, and they are consistent to downscaled regional climate scenarios. Results show that changes in agricultural land uses under future climate change and representative agricultural pathways are substantially different, compared with results not considering representative agricultural pathways. This finding suggests that climate change impacts and adaptation may be underestimated or overestimated if future biophysical and socioeconomic developments are not incorporated, particularly in regional agricultural assessments of climate change adaptation. One implication from this analysis for global adaptation strategies is the need for future infrastructure supports to maintain a climate-resilient agricultural production system due to changes in agricultural land uses.Keywords Representative agricultural pathways . Climate change adaption . Agricultural land uses

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Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

Cited by 20 publications

References 40 publications

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

The Role of Climate Factors in Shaping China’s Crop Mix: An Empirical Exploration

Representative agricultural pathways, climate change, and agricultural land uses: an application to the Pacific Northwest of the USA

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