Adaptation and risk management

Abstract

Assessment methods for adaptation to climate change are very compatible with environmental risk assessment frameworks. Risk assessment approaches are increasingly being recommended for assessments at both national and local levels. Two orientations to assessments can commonly be identified: top-down and bottomup, and prescriptive and diagnostic. Combinations of these orientations favor different types of assessments that can be related to uncertainties in both prediction and taking action, and in the type of adaptation and degree of system stress. Taking multiple viewpoints is to be encouraged, especially in complex situations. The bulk of current guidance material is consistent with top-down and predictive approaches, thus is most suitable for risk scoping and identification. A broad range of material from within and beyond the climate change literature can be used to select subsequent methods. The framing of risk, correct formulation of the questions being investigated and assessment methodology are critical aspects the scoping phase. Only when these issues have been addressed should be issue of specific methods and tools be addressed. The re-orientation of adaptation from an assessment focused solely on anthropogenic climate change to broader issues of vulnerability/resilience, development and managing disaster risk, especially through a risk management framework can draw from existing policy and management understanding in communities, professions, and agencies, and to their existing agendas, knowledge, risks, and issues they already face.

A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed

“…There is research on decision-making approaches that account for uncertainty (Lempert and Groves 2010;Means et al 2010), which is useful for making decisions in light of complexity and changing conditions (Moore et al 2012;NRC 2004;Renn 2008). Additional research is needed, however, on the role and efficacy of inclusive and iterative risk management approaches in climate change adaptation, including how various risk perceptions influence behavior in these decision-making processes (Aven and Renn 2009;Aven et al 2011;Jones and Preston 2011;Kahan et al 2011;NRC 2010a;Renn 2011;Renn et al 2011;van Aalst et al 2008). …”

Sustainability Transitions: Exploring Risk Management and the Future of Adaptation in the Megacity of Lagos

“…The risk management process involves acting on decisions under conditions of uncertainty and threats (Jones and Preston 2011). In urban development, risk management seeks to enhance the capacity of cities, infrastructural systems, and urban populations to anticipate, respond and recover quickly and effectively from natural and man-made hazards; of which climate change represents one particular threat (Leichenko 2011).…”

The latest iteration of IPCC uncertainty guidance—an author perspective

“…Risk is most often addressed as a linear process where a risk is identified, analyzed, evaluated and managed, however interacting risks can become very complex. Probability and consequence can apply to event and outcome-based approaches (Sarewitz et al 2003), where risk can either be characterized as the result of a series of events or as the likelihood of exceeding or attaining a given outcome (Jones and Preston 2011). The international standard on risk defines risk as the effect of uncertainty on objectives (ISO 2009).…”