Adaptation and Climate Change Impacts: A Structural Ricardian Analysis of Farm Types in Germany

Abstract

Based on farm census data, we explore the climate-dependent incidence of six farm types and the climate-induced impacts on land rental prices in Germany. We apply a structural Ricardian approach by modeling the dominant farm type at 9,684 communities as depending on temperature, precipitation and other geographic variables. Rents per farm type are then modeled as depending on climate and other conditioning variables. These results allow the projection of the consequences of climate change as changes in our climate variables. Our results indicate that permanent-crop farms are more likely to dominate in higher temperatures, whereas forage or mixed farms dominate in areas of higher precipitation levels. Land rental prices display a concave response to increases in annual precipitation, and appear to increase linearly with rising annual temperature. Moderate-warming simulation results for future decades benefit most farm types but seem to penalise forage farms. Rental prices are projected to increase, ceteris paribus, for all farm types.

Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems

“…In particular, we follow Seo and Mendelsohn (2008) and Chatzopoulos and Lippert (2015) and use the structural Ricardian model. The model is estimated in two parts: in the first part, climate effects are examined conditional on choice of farm system using multinomial probit model, 8 and the second part estimates the impact on farm revenue conditional of type of farm system using log-linear model.…”

“…The model is estimated in two parts: in the first part, climate effects are examined conditional on choice of farm system using multinomial probit model, 8 and the second part estimates the impact on farm revenue conditional of type of farm system using log-linear model. 9 For more details on the structural Ricardian model, see Chatzopoulos and Lippert (2015). The results of the first part, i.e.…”

“…Shi and Tao (2014) found that maize farms in Africa were vulnerable to climate change. Chatzopoulos and Lippert (2015)'s study on climate change, i.e. precipitation and temperature, observes that moderate warming in Germany will benefit crop farmers and harm forage farmers.…”

A Ricardian Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Italian Agriculture

“…Passel, Massetti and Mendelsohn, 2016;Chatzopoulos and Lippert, 2015;De Salvo, Raffaelli and Moser, 2013;Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008). We follow this literature and test whether farms specialized in crops have a different climate sensitivity than farms specialized in livestock in Italy.…”

“…Several studies have now estimated multi-country Ricardian models for Europe (Moore and Lobell, 2014;Van Passel, Massetti andVanschoenwinkel, Mendelsohn and and there are also several single country studies for Europe (Maddison, 2000;Lang, 2007;Lippert, Krimly and Aurbacher, 2009;Lippert, 2015 and. The Van Passel, Massetti and Mendelsohn, (2016) study finds that European farms are sensitive to warming with possible climate damage of 8% to 44% by 2100 depending on the climate scenario.…”