Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action

Abstract

Abstract. Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new forecast-based financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society forecast-based financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts.

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

“…A more rigorous approach would require analysis of all relevant flood scenarios resulting from EFAS forecasts and estimation of their consequences together with the conditional probability of occurrence, given the range of ensemble forecast members and the forecast uncertainty (Apel et al, 2004). While such a framework would enable a cost-benefit analysis of response measures in an explicit manner, it would also require evaluation of the consequences of wrong forecasts, such as missing or underestimating impending events, or issuing false alarms (Molinari et al, 2013;Coughlan et al, 2016). Given the difficulty of setting up a similar framework at a European scale, during the initial period of service the EFAS risk forecast will be used to plan "low regret" measures like satellite monitoring and warning of local emergency services.…”

Should seasonal rainfall forecasts be used for flood preparedness?

“…Sharing this information with forecasters can inform the development of forecast products that provide specific information about these "danger levels", thus better enabling stakeholders to take appropriate preparatory actions. Forecast-based finance initiatives are underway globally, with the aim of taking action and releasing financing proportional to the risk information in a forecast, before the potential disaster (Coughlan de Perez et al, 2016). Changes to forecast products to provide clearer and more targeted risk information can support this process, and enable humanitarians to better anticipate and prepare for disasters before they strike.…”

Evaluation of Early Action Mechanisms in Peru Regarding Preparedness for El Niño

“…There is evidence that avoided disaster losses can at least double or quadruple the investment in risk reduction (Mechler 2005). This potential benefit buffers society against the possibility of acting ''in vain'' if the hazard does not occur within the forecast-projected time frame, and ensures that the long-term gains of preventative action will outweigh the costs of false alarms (Coughlan De Perez et al 2016).…”