Snow is an important component of the water cycle, and its estimation in hydrological models is of great significance concerning the simulation and forecasting of flood events due to snow-melt. The assimilation of Snow Cover Area (SCA) in physical distributed hydrological models is a possible source of improvement of snowmelt-related floods. In this study, the assimilation in the LISFLOOD model of the MODIS sensor SCA has been evaluated, in order to improve the streamflow simulations of the model. This work is realized with the final scope of improving the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) pan-European flood forecasts in the future. For this purpose daily 500 m resolution MODIS satellite SCA data have been used. Tests were performed in the Morava basin, a tributary of the Danube, for three years. The particle filter method has been chosen for assimilating the MODIS SCA data with different frequencies. Synthetic experiments were first performed to validate the assimilation schemes, before assimilating MODIS SCA data. Results of the synthetic experiments could improve modelled SCA and discharges in all cases. The assimilation of MODIS SCA data with the particle filter shows a net improvement of SCA. The Nash of resulting discharge is consequently increased in many cases.
Abstract. The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include realtime components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from highresolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.
In the first hours of a disaster, up-to-date information about the area of interest is crucial for effective disaster management. However, due to the delay induced by collecting and analysing satellite imagery, disaster management systems like the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) are currently not able to provide information products until up to 48–72 h after a disaster event has occurred. While satellite imagery is still a valuable source for disaster management, information products can be improved through complementing them with user-generated data like social media posts or crowdsourced data. The advantage of these new kinds of data is that they are continuously produced in a timely fashion because users actively participate throughout an event and share related information. The research project Evolution of Emergency Copernicus services (E2mC) aims to integrate these novel data into a new EMS service component called Witness, which is presented in this paper. Like this, the timeliness and accuracy of geospatial information products provided to civil protection authorities can be improved through leveraging user-generated data. This paper sketches the developed system architecture, describes applicable scenarios and presents several preliminary case studies, providing evidence that the scientific and operational goals have been achieved.
Within the EU Project PREVention, Information and Early Warning (PREVIEW), ensembles of discharge series have been generated for the Danube catchment by the use of various weather forecast products. Hydrological models applied for streamflow prediction often have simulation errors that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. Therefore, error-correction methods have been tested for adjusting the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows. This article presents first results of the combination of state-space models and wavelet transformations in order to update errors between the simulated (forecasted) and the observed discharge.
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