Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

Nobre, Gabriela Guimarães; Muis, Sanne; Veldkamp, Ted; Ward, Philip J.

doi:10.1016/j.pdisas.2019.100022

Cited by 34 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The El Niño Southern Oscillation (“El Niño”), is a global pattern of climate variability associated with unusual warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, resulting in increased temperature and changes in precipitation in Peru [ 36 ]. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports data on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), calculated using a standard 3-month mean of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean [ 37 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

et al. 2021

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Background Global temperatures are projected to rise by ≥2 °C by the end of the century, with expected impacts on infectious disease incidence. Establishing the historic relationship between temperature and childhood diarrhea is important to inform future vulnerability under projected climate change scenarios. Methods We compiled a national dataset from Peruvian government data sources, including weekly diarrhea surveillance records, annual administered doses of rotavirus vaccination, annual piped water access estimates, and daily temperature estimates. We used generalized estimating equations to quantify the association between ambient temperature and childhood (< 5 years) weekly reported clinic visits for diarrhea from 2005 to 2015 in 194 of 195 Peruvian provinces. We estimated the combined effect of the mean daily high temperature lagged 1, 2, and 3 weeks, in the eras before (2005–2009) and after (2010–2015) widespread rotavirus vaccination in Peru and examined the influence of varying levels of piped water access. Results Nationally, an increase of 1 °C in the temperature across the three prior weeks was associated with a 3.8% higher rate of childhood clinic visits for diarrhea [incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03–1.04]. Controlling for temperature, there was a significantly higher incidence rate of childhood diarrhea clinic visits during moderate/strong El Niño events (IRR: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01–1.04) and during the dry season (IRR: 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00–1.03). Nationally, there was no evidence that the association between temperature and the childhood diarrhea rate changed between the pre- and post-rotavirus vaccine eras, or that higher levels of access to piped water mitigated the effects of temperature on the childhood diarrhea rate. Conclusions Higher temperatures and intensifying El Niño events that may result from climate change could increase clinic visits for childhood diarrhea in Peru. Findings underscore the importance of considering climate in assessments of childhood diarrhea in Peru and globally, and can inform regional vulnerability assessments and mitigation planning efforts.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

et al. 2021

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“…Guimarães‐Nobre et al (2019) propose that ENSO can change extreme rainfall probabilities over coastal regions and, consequently, environmental risk and economic damages worldwide. We build on this idea by exploring a relationship between ENSO and climate risk over Mexico.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Equation 5does not include exposure-which is considered an element of social vulnerability-because a community is not vulnerable if it is not exposed (Neri and Magaña, 2016). Guimarães-Nobre et al (2019) propose that ENSO can change extreme rainfall probabilities over coastal regions and, consequently, environmental risk and economic damages worldwide. We build on this idea by exploring a relationship between ENSO and climate risk over Mexico.…”

Section: Methodology For Quantifying Climate Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are the socioeconomic impacts associated with tropical cyclones in Mexico exacerbated by local vulnerability and ENSO conditions?

Domínguez

Jaramillo

Cuéllar

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the most dangerous natural hazards because they can cause severe economic losses and high mortality. Climate risk is defined as a metric that depends on social vulnerability and the occurrence of natural hazards. A social vulnerability index was constructed for this study using two metrics: the degree of local marginalization and the local social gap. The accumulated rainfall and duration of extreme precipitation associated with TC passages are examined as a natural hazard during the period 1981-2017. TC days are depicted as days when TC-related rainfall exceeded the 95th percentile of daily precipitation from May to November, defined as summer precipitation. In this way, changes in climate risk under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are explored to determine regions where both social vulnerability and TC days are high. These changes are useful to find out when disasters have more chances to occur. In the present study, climate risk was found to increase more than 80% from average in southwestern Mexico during strong El Niño years. Under neutral conditions, climate risk values rise to more than 40% than average over northwestern Mexico. Under strong La Niña conditions, climate risk increases by more than 80% from average over the eastern coast of Mexico. Our approach is validated through a comparison between anomalies in climate risk and disaster costs (socioeconomic impacts). Both local vulnerability and ENSO conditions exacerbate socioeconomic impacts associated with TCs, and an analysis of linear trends in TC rainfall and TC days reveals that most of the coastal regions in Mexico have a significant rising trend in both variables. Thus, Mexico should be prepared to face more TC extreme rainfall events. Suggestions for how Mexico can meet the objectives of international risk agendas are discussed.

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“…The simultaneous and lagged correlations relations between ENSO and floods on the basin scale are quantified. The possible lag-relations between ENSO and floods can improve flood forecasts and/or flood impact forecasts (Nobre et al, 2019). The simultaneous and lagged connections between precipitation over individual river basins and ENSO are also explored, though the ENSO effects on precipitation and river flows/floods might be different for many river basins (e.g., Emerton et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the ENSO Impact on Basin‐Scale Floods Using Hydrological Simulations and TRMM Precipitation

Yan

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of interannual climate variability with increasing attention for its impacts on water and flood management. The impact of ENSO on basin-scale floods during the TRMM period (1998-2013) is examined by using the streamflow outputs from the Dominant river Routing Integrated with VIC Environment model (DRIVE). Significant simultaneous correlations between flood indices and Niño 3.4 appear in many flood-prone river basins during peak flood months across both the tropics and midlatitudes especially for flood frequency and flood duration. Gauged by significant lag-correlations between floods and Niño 3.4, significant ENSO-leading-floods relations are found as well in many river basins in South America, south and southeastern Asia, and northern Africa. These ENSO-floods-relations can greatly enhance understanding of physical mechanisms relevant to the ENSO impact and may also improve the skills of basin-scale monthly-to-seasonal flood forecast, thus allowing for better preparedness and management of flood risks. Plain Language Summary As a naturally occurring phenomenon involving quasi-periodic variation of air pressure and sea surface temperature, the ENSO impacts global floods through its modulation of atmospheric circulations, weather, and precipitation. Previous studies on ENSO-floodsrelations are often limited in supporting practical flood disaster preparedness and risk analyses because of the lack of a "complete" reconstruction of past flood events likely due to scattered gauge-based streamflow data and/or coarse-resolution retrospective simulations. Here flood events at model grids and for individual river basins are identified using the outputs from the Dominant river Routing Integrated with VIC Environment model (DRIVE) with a high spatial resolution (0.125°× 0.125°) driven by the state-of-the-art satellite precipitation product TMPA. Simultaneous and lagged responses of basin-scale floods to ENSO are explored to provide an improved knowledge of the ENSO effect on global floods and a guidance for flood disaster planning and risk management for the regions consistently impacted by ENSO.

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Achieving the reduction of disaster risk by better predicting impacts of El Niño and La Niña

Cited by 34 publications

References 31 publications

Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

Meteorological factors and childhood diarrhea in Peru, 2005–2015: a time series analysis of historic associations, with implications for climate change

Are the socioeconomic impacts associated with tropical cyclones in Mexico exacerbated by local vulnerability and ENSO conditions?

Exploring the ENSO Impact on Basin‐Scale Floods Using Hydrological Simulations and TRMM Precipitation

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