Are the socioeconomic impacts associated with tropical cyclones in Mexico exacerbated by local vulnerability and ENSO conditions?

Abstract

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are among the most dangerous natural hazards because they can cause severe economic losses and high mortality. Climate risk is defined as a metric that depends on social vulnerability and the occurrence of natural hazards. A social vulnerability index was constructed for this study using two metrics: the degree of local marginalization and the local social gap. The accumulated rainfall and duration of extreme precipitation associated with TC passages are examined as a natural hazard during the period 1981-2017. TC days are depicted as days when TC-related rainfall exceeded the 95th percentile of daily precipitation from May to November, defined as summer precipitation. In this way, changes in climate risk under El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are explored to determine regions where both social vulnerability and TC days are high. These changes are useful to find out when disasters have more chances to occur. In the present study, climate risk was found to increase more than 80% from average in southwestern Mexico during strong El Niño years. Under neutral conditions, climate risk values rise to more than 40% than average over northwestern Mexico. Under strong La Niña conditions, climate risk increases by more than 80% from average over the eastern coast of Mexico. Our approach is validated through a comparison between anomalies in climate risk and disaster costs (socioeconomic impacts). Both local vulnerability and ENSO conditions exacerbate socioeconomic impacts associated with TCs, and an analysis of linear trends in TC rainfall and TC days reveals that most of the coastal regions in Mexico have a significant rising trend in both variables. Thus, Mexico should be prepared to face more TC extreme rainfall events. Suggestions for how Mexico can meet the objectives of international risk agendas are discussed.

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

“…These results demonstrate that the positive changes in summer rainfall over northern Mexico (Figure 3) are essentially due to an increase in TC precipitation for the members rnty and rtty during the 2020-2030 and 2050-2060 decades, as TCs represent up to 60% of the summer rainfall over semiarid Mexican regions [4]. Interestingly, these results agree with the observed positive trends in TC rainfall and TC days over northwestern Mexico found by Dominguez et al [3] using CHIRPS during the 1981-2017 period.…”

“…TC rainfall and TC days over northwestern Mexico found by Dominguez et al [3] using CHIRPS during the 1981-2017 period.…”

“…Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are hazardous tropical phenomena that can produce heavy rainfall and have dangerous winds, causing high economic losses [3]. However, they can also transport substantial amounts of rainfall that induce the recharge of water reservoirs, lakes, and rivers [4].…”

“…For instance, TCs are linked with 86.5% of the annual disaster costs in Mexico, where the main hazard is the heavy rainfall they produced [2]. Dominguez et al [3] show that disaster costs in Mexico remarkably depend on natural variability, such as ENSO, because the national social vulnerability is high. Tropical storms or even tropical depressions can produce such huge amounts of rainfall that one single event can increase the chances of disaster occurrence.…”

Hurricane Otis: the costliest and strongest hurricane at landfall on record in Mexico

“…The landfall of Otis caused severe infrastructure damage, loss of life and left over one million people without access to food, water and power and cut off telecommunications and roads for weeks. Local vulnerabilities, such as infrastructure that is not designed to withstand these types of events, and the lack of preparation in the local decision‐makers and in the population, exacerbate the impacts of hydrometeorological events such as Otis (Dominguez et al ., 2021). Future strategic planning must include measures that build resilience to Otis ‐like events and early warning systems that consider a multi‐hazard approach as a first step to reducing disaster risk (Bowman et al ., 2014).…”