A within-flock model of Salmonella Heidelberg transmission in broiler chickens

Collineau, Lucie; Phillips, Charly; Chapman, Brennan; Agunos, Agnes; Carson, Carolee A.; Fazil, Aamir; Reid‐Smith, Richard J.; Smith, Ben

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2019.104823

Cited by 16 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The mathematical model used in this paper to described the spread of Salmonella within in a poultry flock a is modified version of the SIR model 9 – 11 where the population only have two stages—susceptible and infected (for details see Supplementary Material ). A similar approach of using an SIR model has recently been published by Collinaeu et al 12 who was modelling the transmission of Salmonella in a typical Canadian commercial broiler chicken flock.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using stochastic dynamic modelling to estimate the sensitivity of current and alternative surveillance program of Salmonella in conventional broiler production

Apenteng

Arnold

Vigre

2020

Sci Rep

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Since 2018, the EU commission has declared the Danish broiler industry to be Salmonella free. However, there is continuous Salmonella pressure from the environment, and a number of parent flocks and broiler flocks become infected annually. When a parent flock becomes infected, the infection can be transmitted vertically to the broiler flocks, before the parent flock is detected and destroyed, including the eggs at the hatchery. To address this issue, we developed stochastic dynamic modelling of transmission of Salmonella in parent flocks and combined that with the relation between flock prevalence and test sensitivity for environmental samples in the flock. Results suggested that after 10 and 100 infected hens were seeded, the likelihood of detecting an infected parent flock within the three first weeks after the infection was strongly influenced by the taking of five boot swabs (95% CI 70–100) instead of two (95% CI 40–100) or the supplementing of the two boot swabs by a dust sample (95% CI 43–100). Results suggest that the likelihood of detecting the broiler flock as infected in the program was estimated to at least 99% in broiler flock even if only one chicken was initially infected. These findings are of relevance for managing parent flocks and eggs at the hatchery in case of Salmonella infection in parent flocks in the Danish poultry.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using stochastic dynamic modelling to estimate the sensitivity of current and alternative surveillance program of Salmonella in conventional broiler production

Apenteng

Arnold

Vigre

2020

Sci Rep

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“…It may be perceived that the sample size here (number of participants) may be relatively small, compared to the population of field experts. The definition of sample size when consulting experts is subjective and, in many cases, a sample size of even one single expert has been used to parameterize distributions [84]; see also the discussion of sample size in [80]. Rather than numbers, we focused on giving our population the required training to help them understand what we wanted to estimate and then relied on their expertise and consensus-building to arrive at the best representation of each value.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Self-Reporting of Risk Pathways and Parameter Values for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Slaughter Cattle from Alternative Production Systems by Kenyan and Ugandan Veterinarians

Adamchick

Rich

Pérez

2021

Viruses

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Countries in which foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic may face bans on the export of FMD-susceptible livestock and products because of the associated risk for transmission of FMD virus. Risk assessment is an essential tool for demonstrating the fitness of one’s goods for the international marketplace and for improving animal health. However, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data for such risk assessments in many countries where FMD is present. This study bridged the gaps of traditional participatory and expert elicitation approaches by partnering with veterinarians from the National Veterinary Services of Kenya (n = 13) and Uganda (n = 10) enrolled in an extended capacity-building program to systematically collect rich, local knowledge in a format appropriate for formal quantitative analysis. Participants mapped risk pathways and quantified variables that determine the risk of infection among cattle at slaughter originating from each of four beef production systems in each country. Findings highlighted that risk processes differ between management systems, that disease and sale are not always independent events, and that events on the risk pathway are influenced by the actions and motivations of value chain actors. The results provide necessary information for evaluating the risk of FMD among cattle pre-harvest in Kenya and Uganda and provide a framework for similar evaluation in other endemic settings.

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“…Enteritidis, while the increasing trend in game-bird hatcheries was mainly due to increasing trends in S. enterica serovars Typhimurium and Indiana. These serovars can be transmitted vertically and horizontally to progeny [13,14]. The hatcheries might have become initially contaminated via eggs from infected breeder flocks.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most instances of human salmonellosis are caused by the consumption of contaminated poultry products (such as meat or eggs), milk, cheese, fresh produce, and direct contact with pet turtles, hedgehogs, and baby chicks [8][9][10][11]. In 2011, 63% of Canadian non-typhoidal salmonellosis cases in humans were attributed to the consumption of contaminated poultry products [8,12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Study of Salmonella enterica Serovars Isolated from Fluff Samples from Ontario Poultry Hatcheries between 2009 and 2018

et al. 2021

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The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence, temporal trends, seasonal patterns, and temporal clustering of Salmonella enterica isolated from fluff samples from poultry hatcheries in Ontario between 2009 and 2018. A scan statistic was used to identify clusters of common serovars and those of human health concern. A multi-level logistic regression model was used to identify factors (poultry commodity, year, season) associated with S. enterica presence. The period prevalence of S. enterica was 7.5% in broiler hatcheries, 1.6% in layer hatcheries, 7.6% in turkey hatcheries, 29.7% in waterfowl hatcheries, and 13.8% in game-bird hatcheries. An overall increasing trend in S. enterica prevalence was identified in waterfowl and game-bird hatcheries, while a decreasing trend was identified in broiler and turkey hatcheries. Overall, the most common S. enterica serovars were Kentucky, Enteritidis, Heidelberg, and Senftenberg. Salmonella enterica ser. Enteritidis was the most common serovar in waterfowl hatcheries. Temporal clusters were identified for all poultry commodities. Seasonal effects varied by commodity, with the highest odds of S. enterica occurring in the summer and fall. Our study offers information on the prevalence and temporality of S. enterica serovars that might guide prevention and control programs at the hatchery level.

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A within-flock model of Salmonella Heidelberg transmission in broiler chickens

Cited by 16 publications

References 47 publications

Using stochastic dynamic modelling to estimate the sensitivity of current and alternative surveillance program of Salmonella in conventional broiler production

Using stochastic dynamic modelling to estimate the sensitivity of current and alternative surveillance program of Salmonella in conventional broiler production

Self-Reporting of Risk Pathways and Parameter Values for Foot-and-Mouth Disease in Slaughter Cattle from Alternative Production Systems by Kenyan and Ugandan Veterinarians

Temporal Study of Salmonella enterica Serovars Isolated from Fluff Samples from Ontario Poultry Hatcheries between 2009 and 2018

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