A Visible (Hot) Hand? Expert Players Bet on the Hot Hand and Win

Miller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam

doi:10.31219/osf.io/sd32u

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In addition, GVT misinterpreted their measures of bettors' ability to predict. In light of these limitations, Miller and Sanjurjo () reanalyzed GVT's betting data, and found that players on average shoot around +7 percentage points higher when bettors have predicted that the shot will be a hit, rather than a miss (

p < . 001

). This increase is comparable in magnitude to an NBA shooter going from slightly above average to elite in three point percentage.…”

Section: Application To the Hot Hand Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, in light of the results presented in the present paper, subjects' responses in GVT's unincentivized survey are actually qualitatively consistent with the evidence presented above. More substantively, GVT's statistical analysis of betting data has recently been shown to be considerably underpowered, as the authors conducted many separate individual bettor level tests rather than pooling the data across bettors ( Miller and Sanjurjo ()). In addition, GVT misinterpreted their measures of bettors' ability to predict.…”

Section: Application To the Hot Hand Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Miller¹,

Sanjurjo²

2018

Econometrica

Self Cite

121

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We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and remains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical work. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy literature, along with replications, are vulnerable to the bias. Upon correcting for the bias, we find that the longstanding conclusions of the canonical study are reversed.

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p < . 001

). This increase is comparable in magnitude to an NBA shooter going from slightly above average to elite in three point percentage.…”

Section: Application To the Hot Hand Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Application To the Hot Hand Fallacymentioning

confidence: 99%

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Miller¹,

Sanjurjo²

2018

Econometrica

Self Cite

121

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Recently, a growing body of literature in sports analytics is interested mainly in studying the claims of many coaches, players, and fans that momentum impacts the outcome of the game [2]. These papers often conclude that momentum, as it is traditionally defined, does not exist in team sports [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comprehensive Data Pipeline for Comparing the Effects of Momentum on Sports Leagues

Noel,

Prado da Fonseca,

Soares

2024

Data

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Momentum has been a consistently studied aspect of sports science for decades. Among the established literature, there has, at times, been a discrepancy between conclusions. However, if momentum is indeed an actual phenomenon, it would affect all aspects of sports, from player evaluation to pre-game prediction and betting. Therefore, using momentum-based features that quantify a team’s linear trend of play, we develop a data pipeline that uses a small sample of recent games to assess teams’ quality of play and measure the predictive power of momentum-based features versus the predictive power of more traditional frequency-based features across several leagues using several machine learning techniques. More precisely, we use our pipeline to determine the differences in the predictive power of momentum-based features and standard statistical features for the National Hockey League (NHL), National Basketball Association (NBA), and five major first-division European football leagues. Our findings show little evidence that momentum has superior predictive power in the NBA. Still, we found some instances of the effects of momentum on the NHL that produced better pre-game predictors, whereas we view a similar trend in European football/soccer. Our results indicate that momentum-based features combined with frequency-based features could improve pre-game prediction models and that, in the future, momentum should be studied more from a feature/performance indicator point-of-view and less from the view of the dependence of sequential outcomes, thus attempting to distance momentum from the binary view of winning and losing.

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Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases

Miller¹,

Gelman²

2020

Statist. Sci.

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A Visible (Hot) Hand? Expert Players Bet on the Hot Hand and Win

Cited by 4 publications

References 25 publications

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

Surprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers

A Comprehensive Data Pipeline for Comparing the Effects of Momentum on Sports Leagues

Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases

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