Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases

Miller, Joshua B.; Gelman, Andrew

doi:10.1214/19-sts696

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 65 publications

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“…This design emphasizes internal validity and therefore risks presenting participants with carefully constructed stimuli that lack realism, having not been drawn from the 9 Kahneman and Tversky were not the first to diagnose base-rate neglect. Laplace (1814Laplace ( /1951) offered what may have been the first account of the base-rate fallacy (Miller & Gelman, 2020). Much later, Meehl and Rosen (1955), in their analysis of the use of psychometric devices in clinical practice, pointed out that diagnostic and clinical predictions can often be made with high accuracy using the base rates of clinical categories.…”

Section: Why Experimental Protocol Mattersmentioning

confidence: 99%

How experimental methods shaped views on human competence and rationality.

Lejarraga¹,

Hertwig²

2021

Psychological Bulletin

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Section: Why Experimental Protocol Mattersmentioning

confidence: 99%

How experimental methods shaped views on human competence and rationality.

Lejarraga¹,

Hertwig²

2021

Psychological Bulletin

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Understanding forecast reconciliation

Hollyman

Petropoulos

Tipping

2021

European Journal of Operational Research

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Risk and Uncertainty in the Cost Contingency of Transport Projects: Accommodating Bias or Heuristics, or Both?

Love

Ika

Matthews

et al. 2024

IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage.

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Transport projects are regularly subjected to cost misperformance. The contingency set aside to cover any increases in cost due to risk and uncertainty issues is often insufficient. We review approaches that have been used to estimate a cost contingency. We show that some approaches such as reference class forecasting, which underpins the planning fallacy theory, take a biased view to formulate a contingency. Indeed, there is a perception that the risks and uncertainties that form the parts of a cost contingency cannot be accurately assessed using heuristics. The absence of an overarching theory to support the use of heuristics has resulted in them often being downplayed in a project's investment decision-making process. This article fills this void and provides the theoretical backdrop to support the use of heuristics to formulate a cost contingency. We make a clarion call to reconcile the duality of the bias and heuristic approaches, propose a balanced framework for developing a cost contingency, and suggest the use of uplifts to derisk cost estimates is redundant. We hope our advocacy for a balanced approach will stimulate debate and question the legitimacy of uplifts to solely debias cost estimates.

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Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases

Cited by 4 publications

References 65 publications

How experimental methods shaped views on human competence and rationality.

How experimental methods shaped views on human competence and rationality.

Understanding forecast reconciliation

Risk and Uncertainty in the Cost Contingency of Transport Projects: Accommodating Bias or Heuristics, or Both?

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