A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change

Potter, Kevin M.; Crane, Barbara S.; Hargrove, William W.

doi:10.1007/s11056-017-9569-5

Cited by 26 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 65 publications

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“…Specifically, these data represent essential inputs in analyses to characterize and prioritize the vulnerability of native tree species to one of the principal threats to their long-term persistence on the landscape. Such an assessment, which accounts for the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of the host species as well as their exposure to the threat [54], was recently completed to categorize the vulnerability of 339 native United States tree species to climate change [28]. An assessment focused on the insect and disease threats to tree species in the region could identify and prioritize the species facing the most dramatic reductions in population size as a result of their sensitivity and lack of adaptive capacity to an insect or disease epidemic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…European gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar L.) was the insect that had the most tree hosts (65), followed by Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis Motschulsky) with 43, and twolined chestnut borer (Agrilus bilineatus Webster) with 31 (Table S2). All three are exotic invasives; forest tent caterpillar (Malacosoma disstria Hübner) was the native insect with the most hosts (28). Oak wilt (Bretziella fagacearum (Bretz) Z.W.…”

Section: Insect and Disease Agent Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To quantify the spatial extent and patterns of forest disease and insect activities across the United States, we combined information about the severity of the most significant agents affecting each tree species native to the continental United States with a nationally standardized forest inventory system. This work is part of a broader effort to categorize and prioritize United States tree species for conservation actions based on the threats that face them, as well as on their sensitivity and adaptive capacity relative to those threats [28]. For the current assessment, we first compiled a list of as many as five of the most serious insect and disease agents for each of 419 native tree species, and rated the severity associated with each of the resulting 1378 tree host/insect or disease agent combinations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Important Insect and Disease Threats to United States Tree Species and Geographic Patterns of Their Potential Impacts

Potter

Escanferla

Jetton

et al. 2019

Forests

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Diseases and insects, particularly those that are non-native and invasive, arguably pose the most destructive threat to North American forests. Currently, both exotic and native insects and diseases are producing extensive ecological damage and economic impacts. As part of an effort to identify United States tree species and forests most vulnerable to these epidemics, we compiled a list of the most serious insect and disease threats for 419 native tree species and assigned a severity rating for each of the 1378 combinations between mature tree hosts and 339 distinct insect and disease agents. We then joined this list with data from a spatially unbiased and nationally consistent forest inventory to assess the potential ecological impacts of insect and disease infestations. Specifically, potential host species mortality for each host/agent combination was used to weight species importance values on approximately 132,000 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots across the conterminous 48 United States. When summed on each plot, these weighted importance values represent an estimate of the proportion of the plot’s existing importance value at risk of being lost. These plot estimates were then used to identify statistically significant geographic hotspots and coldspots and of potential forest impacts associated with insects and diseases in total, and for different agent types. In general, the potential impacts of insects and diseases were greater in the West, where there are both fewer agents and less diverse forests. The impact of non-native invasive agents, however, was potentially greater in the East. Indeed, the impacts of current exotic pests could be greatly magnified across much of the Eastern United States if these agents are able to reach the entirety of their hosts’ ranges. Both the list of agent/host severities and the spatially explicit results can inform species-level vulnerability assessments and broad-scale forest sustainability reporting efforts, and should provide valuable information for decision-makers who need to determine which tree species and locations to target for monitoring efforts and pro-active management activities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Insect and Disease Agent Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Important Insect and Disease Threats to United States Tree Species and Geographic Patterns of Their Potential Impacts

Potter

Escanferla

Jetton

et al. 2019

Forests

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“…, Potter et al. ). New mathematical solutions for better integration of multi‐source and multi‐scale information have been developed by modelers, including hybrid models (Gallien et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Integrative approaches, which bring together information from a variety of disciplines, have gained momentum in recent years, and several studies have demonstrated their usefulness in the context of vulnerability assessments (Foden et al 2013, Potter et al 2017. New mathematical solutions for better integration of multi-source and multi-scale information have been developed by modelers, including hybrid models (Gallien et al 2010) and metamodeling frameworks (Talluto et al 2016), but their application to management remains limited notably by the availability of high-quality data in a suitable format from certain disciplines (Aubin et al 2016, Urban et al 2016.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tree vulnerability to climate change: improving exposure‐based assessments using traits as indicators of sensitivity

et al. 2018

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Projected changes in climate conditions vary widely across Canada's 350 M ha of forests, and so does the capacity of forest species to cope with these changes (sensitivity). Development and prioritization of adaptation strategies for sustainable forest management will depend on integrated assessments of relative stand vulnerability. We developed species‐specific indices of sensitivity to (1) drought‐induced mortality and (2) migration failure, based on traits for 22 of the most abundant tree species in Canada. By combining this information with stand composition data and spatially explicit climate change projections, we were able to map Canadian forest vulnerability to drought and migration failure. Our maps show forest vulnerability changing rapidly under a high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) between short‐ (2011–2040), medium‐ (2041–2070), and long‐term projections (2071–2100). Several zones of special concern emerged based on the biomass involved, stand sensitivity, and vulnerability trends across time. Boreal forests in the central regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan appeared most vulnerable to drought‐induced mortality in the mid to long term. In the short term, distance to suitable habitat is projected to shift quickly along latitudinal gradients, particularly in Central Canada, while zones of vulnerability to migration failure appeared across the Rockies region in the long term as suitable conditions disappear from mountainous areas. This spatial assessment of vulnerability, which integrates species‐specific sensitivity, highlights important regional contrasts between vulnerability to drought (from high exposure, high proportion of sensitive species, or both) and to migration failure. By affecting either species’ ability to persist in place or to migrate, different climate change impacts can yield distinct biotic responses, with important implications for regional climate change adaptation strategies. Multi‐faceted vulnerability assessments, integrating both exposure and sensitivity indices specific to expected impacts of climate change, have the potential to provide crucial information to managers. We discuss some of these implications, explore the current limitations of our approach, and suggest a path forward.

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The genusCupressusL.

Farahmand

2019

Horticultural Reviews

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A United States national prioritization framework for tree species vulnerability to climate change

Cited by 26 publications

References 65 publications

Important Insect and Disease Threats to United States Tree Species and Geographic Patterns of Their Potential Impacts

Important Insect and Disease Threats to United States Tree Species and Geographic Patterns of Their Potential Impacts

Tree vulnerability to climate change: improving exposure‐based assessments using traits as indicators of sensitivity

The genusCupressusL.

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