Tree vulnerability to climate change: improving exposure‐based assessments using traits as indicators of sensitivity

Aubin, Isabelle; Boisvert‐Marsh, Laura; Kebli, Hedi; McKenney, Daniel W.; Pedlar, John H.; Lawrence, Kevin; Hogg, Edward H.; Boulanger, Yan; Gauthier, Sylvie; Ste-Marie, Catherine

doi:10.1002/ecs2.2108

Cited by 74 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 98 publications

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“…It may have favoured the establishment of N‐responsive species such as A. saccharum (Rothstein, Zak, & Pregitzer, ). Finally, the observed patterns of range shift do not imply that the species will keep up with the rapidly changing climate (Aubin et al, ; Boisvert‐Marsh et al, ; Sittaro et al, ), although trees’ recent latitudinal shifts match the direction predicted by species distribution models (Périé & de Blois, ). In spite of these limitations and given the paucity of data on the relationship between ongoing climate change, disturbances and range dynamics, our models offer significant insights on forests’ response.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Expected biotic responses to climate change include upward (elevational) or poleward (latitudinal) migration of species, although the former has been documented for plants more than the latter (Lenoir & Svenning, 2015;Yalcin & Leroux, 2017). Climate tends to change over larger distances along latitudinal gradients than for elevational ones, and tree range displacement involves relatively slow processes of reproduction, dispersal and establishment (Aubin et al, 2018). The magnitude of climate warming is particularly strong at northern latitudes and can put pressure on species to migrate towards more suitable habitats (Chen, Hill, Ohlemüller, Roy, & Thomas, 2011;Périé & de Blois, 2016;Xu et al, 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

2019

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Climate change is expected to result in a reorganization of the continental distribution of tree species. Recent shifts in distribution patterns have been reported, but it is not always clear how climate change influences these patterns locally, especially in relation to other disturbances. We investigated latitudinal shifts of four ecologically important tree species between 1970 and 2014 within a study area that encompasses their northernmost range limit in northeastern North America (Quebec, Canada; ~761,000 km2). Changes in latitudinal limits were defined in relation to changes in tree saplings’ occurrence patterns within forest plots resampled over two time periods (1970–1977 and 2003–2014). By examining changes in the frequency of occurrences in different portions of the study area along a latitudinal gradient, we were able to identify spatially explicit patterns of loss or gain (sapling recruitment) resulting in the shifts observed. We then estimated the probability of observing a recruitment event in response to changes in climate, disturbance and their interaction, using a multimodel selection approach. Latitudinal limits of all four species shifted northward, but these shifts resulted from different patterns of plot occurrence changes, depending on the species and the location examined. Greater recruitment at northern locations than at southern ones drove shifts for Acer saccharum Marsh., Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. and Acer rubrum L., but less so for Betula alleghaniensis Britt. Climate variables indicating changes in early or late growing season conditions were most often selected in models. Warming tended to reduce recruitment probability in the south but increase it in the north, leading to divergent responses for a given species across the study area. Disturbance effects were generally less important than climate change effects, as was their interaction. Synthesis. Spatially explicit and divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species. The importance of early‐ or late‐season climate variables points towards biological processes being affected at critical stages of the life cycle. Understanding the factors that influence species’ migration capacity in a changing climate is crucial to inform adaptive management and conservation practices.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

2019

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“…However, depending on study objectives, quantifying the greatest proportion of ITV may be insufficient (Albert et al, ). For instance, even small amounts of ITV captured at large scales may be important for biome‐scale sensitivity analyses or climate change adaptation studies (Anderegg, ; Aubin et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, even small amounts of ITV captured at large scales may be important for biome-scale sensitivity analyses or climate change adaptation studies (Anderegg, 2015;Aubin et al, 2018).…”

Section: Partitioning Of Itv At Three Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geographic scale and disturbance influence intraspecific trait variability in leaves and roots of North American understorey plants

et al. 2019

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Considering intraspecific trait variability (ITV) in ecological studies has improved our understanding of species persistence and coexistence. These advances are based on the growing number of leaf ITV studies over local gradients, but logistical constraints have prevented a solid examination of ITV in root traits or at scales reflecting species’ geographic ranges. We compared the magnitude of ITV in above‐ and below‐ground plant organs across three spatial scales (biophysical region, locality and plot). We focused on six understorey species (four herbs and two shrubs) that occur both in disturbed and undisturbed habitats across boreal and temperate Canadian forests. We aimed to document ITV structure over broad ecological and geographical scales by asking: (a) What is the breadth of ITV across species range‐scale? (b) What proportion of ITV is captured at different spatial scales, particularly when local scale disturbances are considered? and (c) Is the variance structure consistent between analogous leaf and root traits, and between morphological and chemical traits? Following standardized methods, we sampled 818 populations across 79 forest plots simultaneously, including disturbed and undisturbed stands, spanning four biophysical regions (~5,200 km). Traits measured included specific leaf area (SLA), specific root length (SRL) and leaf and root nutrient concentrations (N, P, K, Mg, Ca). We used variance decomposition techniques to characterize ITV structure across scales. Our results show that an important proportion of ITV occurred at the local scale when sampling included contrasting environmental conditions resulting from local disturbance. A certain proportion of the variability in both leaf and root traits remained unaccounted for by the three sampling scales included in the design (36% on average), with the largest amount for SRL (54%). Substantial differences in magnitude of ITV were found among the six species, and between analogous traits, suggesting that trait distribution was influenced by species strategy and reflects the extent of understorey environment heterogeneity. Even for species with broad geographical distributions, a large proportion of within‐species trait variability can be captured by sampling locally across ecological gradients. This has practical implications for sampling design and trait selection for both local studies and continental‐scale modelling. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

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“…Indeed, increases in the frequency or severity of natural disturbances would likely lead to changes in forest composition and structure, depending on speciesspecific sensitivities (Aubin et al 2016). For instance, the proportion of the volume at risk of trembling aspen is expected to increase from the current period to 2071-2100 period in central Canada, relative to other species because of the combination of aspen's susceptibility to drought (Hogg and Bernier 2005) and the expected increase in drought frequency or severity in this region (Aubin et al 2018). This suggests high mortality of trembling aspen that could result in partial replacement by more drought tolerant species in central Canada, or at least in important changes in forest structure.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada

Boucher

Boulanger

Aubin

et al. 2018

Ecological Applications

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Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011-2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071-2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances.

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Tree vulnerability to climate change: improving exposure‐based assessments using traits as indicators of sensitivity

Cited by 74 publications

References 98 publications

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

Divergent responses to climate change and disturbance drive recruitment patterns underlying latitudinal shifts of tree species

Geographic scale and disturbance influence intraspecific trait variability in leaves and roots of North American understorey plants

Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada

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