A U.S.‒China coal power transition and the global 1.5 °C pathway

Cui, Ryna; Hultman, Nathan; Cui, Diyang; McJeon, Haewon; Clarke, Leon; Yuan, Jiahai; Cai, Wenjia

doi:10.1016/j.accre.2021.09.005

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Global coal use subsequently rose. It may peak soon, but many new coal-fired plants are under construction and planned [10].…”

Section: Cutting Fossil Fuels?mentioning

confidence: 99%

COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy

Harris

2024

PLOS Clim

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The 2023 COP28 climate conference produced the first global stocktake of progress toward the objectives of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including its aim of preventing "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system," and subsequent protocols, notably the 2015 Paris Agreement and its intent to limit global warming to "well below" 2˚C-ideally 1.5˚C-and to help poor countries affected by climate change [1]. The stocktake revealed the extent to which international diplomacy and governance have failed to prevent the advancing climate crisis. The climate challengeTwenty twenty-three was the warmest year on record [2]. It was characterized by extreme storms, terrestrial and marine heatwaves, melting of the cryosphere and rising seas. Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 exceeded 418 parts per million (ppm) in 2022, up from 357 ppm in 1992 and more than 50 percent above the preindustrial level [3]. The passage of crucial environmental tipping points, such as desiccation of the Amazon rain forest, looks inevitable because the causes of climate change continue to grow [4]. Humanity has pumped more CO 2 into the atmosphere since the UNFCCC was signed than in all of preceding human history [5]. Emissions are still rising [6].The COP28 agreement acknowledges that "progress on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation . . . are not yet collectively on track toward achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement." It emphasizes the importance of "urgent action and support" this decade to avoid exceeding 1.5˚C of warming. It "recognizes" that doing so will require "deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050." As with all past COP agreements, the devil is in the detail of how to ensure that actors undertake necessary action. The COP28 agreement leaves it to individual states to implement their own nationally determined actions. They remain free to do as much or as little as they wish.Among the many topics addressed at COP28, arguably the most important were formal operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) to compensate poor countries harmed by climate change, and a long-overdue call for the world to move away from-but not to phase out-fossil fuels. As with previous COPs' outcomes, caveats abound.

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“…Global coal use subsequently rose. It may peak soon, but many new coal-fired plants are under construction and planned [10].…”

Section: Cutting Fossil Fuels?mentioning

confidence: 99%

COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy

Harris

2024

PLOS Clim

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“…Office of the President, 2021; Bergero et al, 2022;Cui et al, 2022;Kim et al, 2022;Fuhrman et al, 2023). This study used a version of GCAM 6.0, with additional region-specific developments described in Sections 2.…”

Section: Frontiers In Energy Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon neutrality in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur: insights from stakeholder-driven integrated assessment modeling

Weber,

Pressburger,

Chau

et al. 2024

Front. Energy Res.

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Introduction: Several cities in Malaysia have established plans to reduce their CO2 emissions, in addition to Malaysia submitting a Nationally Determined Contribution to reduce its carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% in 2030 compared to 2005. Meeting these emissions reduction goals will require a joint effort between governments, industries, and corporations at different scales and across sectors.Methods: In collaboration with national and sub-national stakeholders, we developed and used a global integrated assessment model to explore emissions mitigation pathways in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur. Guided by current climate action plans, we created a suite of scenarios to reflect uncertainties in policy ambition, level of adoption, and implementation for reaching carbon neutrality. Through iterative engagement with all parties, we refined the scenarios and focus of the analysis to best meet the stakeholders’ needs.Results: We found that Malaysia can reduce its carbon intensity and reach carbon neutrality by 2050, and that action in Kuala Lumpur can play a significant role. Decarbonization of the power sector paired with extensive electrification, energy efficiency improvements in buildings, transportation, and industry, and the use of advanced technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture and storage will be major drivers to mitigate emissions, with carbon dioxide removal strategies being key to eliminate residual emissions.Discussion: Our results suggest a hopeful future for Malaysia’s ability to meet its climate goals, recognizing that there may be technological, social, and financial challenges along the way. This study highlights the participatory process in which stakeholders contributed to the development of the model and guided the analysis, as well as insights into Malaysia’s decarbonization potential and the role of multilevel governance.

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“…Based on this, many scholars have studied this in detail. Cui et al [13] compared carbon reduction measures in the US and China to provide an effective database for the implementation of carbon reduction. After analyzing policy interventions in the economic development of Hubei Province, Wu et al [14] used a regression intermittency design for causal inference.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The consumption of corporate minerals mainly includes coal combustion, auxiliary fuel, diesel for mobile equipment, and gasoline for mobile equipment. The relevant equation for their calculation is shown in Equation (13).…”

Section: Carbon Emissions Data Accounting Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Carbon Emissions and Emission Reduction from Coal-Fired Power Plants Based on Dual Carbon Targets

2023

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The emission of greenhouse gases poses enormous pressure on current carbon emissions and carbon reduction. Accurate quantification of carbon emissions from coal-fired power plants is of great significance for achieving the dual carbon goal. To enable enterprises to better understand their carbon emissions, this study constructs a carbon emission model and carbon emission data accounting model for coal-fired power plants. Case data calculations and a carbon emission reduction analysis were conducted. The experiment showcases that the carbon sensitivity of the inner side of the boiler under control conditions is higher than that of the operating parameters controlled on the inner side of the steam turbine, with a maximum total value of 16.67 g/MJ; the annual average low calorific value of coal remains between 16,000 kJ/kg; the activity level of coal remains between 30,000 TJ; and the oxidation probability of coal char during combustion fluctuates, with a maximum of 99.8%. In the calculation of coal-fired carbon emissions, the fitting difference between the emissions of generator unit 1 and generator unit 2 is maintained within 2%. Overall, the CO2 emissions of power plants involved in the study are generally high. The model built through this study has well analyzed the carbon emissions of power plants. It is of great significance for the actual carbon emission reduction of coal-fired power plants.

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A U.S.‒China coal power transition and the global 1.5 °C pathway

Cited by 8 publications

References 17 publications

COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy

COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy

Carbon neutrality in Malaysia and Kuala Lumpur: insights from stakeholder-driven integrated assessment modeling

Analysis of Carbon Emissions and Emission Reduction from Coal-Fired Power Plants Based on Dual Carbon Targets

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