COP28: Loss and damage, fossil fuels and the limits of climate diplomacy

Abstract

The 2023 COP28 climate conference produced the first global stocktake of progress toward the objectives of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including its aim of preventing "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system," and subsequent protocols, notably the 2015 Paris Agreement and its intent to limit global warming to "well below" 2˚C-ideally 1.5˚C-and to help poor countries affected by climate change [1]. The stocktake revealed the extent to which international diplomacy and governance have failed to prevent the advancing climate crisis. The climate challengeTwenty twenty-three was the warmest year on record [2]. It was characterized by extreme storms, terrestrial and marine heatwaves, melting of the cryosphere and rising seas. Atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 exceeded 418 parts per million (ppm) in 2022, up from 357 ppm in 1992 and more than 50 percent above the preindustrial level [3]. The passage of crucial environmental tipping points, such as desiccation of the Amazon rain forest, looks inevitable because the causes of climate change continue to grow [4]. Humanity has pumped more CO 2 into the atmosphere since the UNFCCC was signed than in all of preceding human history [5]. Emissions are still rising [6].The COP28 agreement acknowledges that "progress on mitigation, adaptation and means of implementation . . . are not yet collectively on track toward achieving the purpose of the Paris Agreement." It emphasizes the importance of "urgent action and support" this decade to avoid exceeding 1.5˚C of warming. It "recognizes" that doing so will require "deep, rapid and sustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050." As with all past COP agreements, the devil is in the detail of how to ensure that actors undertake necessary action. The COP28 agreement leaves it to individual states to implement their own nationally determined actions. They remain free to do as much or as little as they wish.Among the many topics addressed at COP28, arguably the most important were formal operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF) to compensate poor countries harmed by climate change, and a long-overdue call for the world to move away from-but not to phase out-fossil fuels. As with previous COPs' outcomes, caveats abound.