A two-species stage-structured model for<i>West Nile virus</i>transmission

Beebe, Taylor A.; Robertson, Suzanne L.

doi:10.1080/23737867.2017.1302828

Cited by 2 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…We use a mathematical model based on those described in Robertson and Caillouët (2016) and Beebe and Robertson (2017) to simulate the dynamics of WNV over a single year in each type of damage-affected region. The primary vector of interest is Cx.…”

Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adults produce juveniles according to a Gaussian recruitment curve, with parameters chosen so newly hatched birds, or nestlings, are concentrated during the period between March 15 (day 74) and August 10 (day 222) to align with observed nesting curves in St. Tammany Parish (Caillouët, personal observation). We note that Robertson and Caillouët (2016) and Beebe and Robertson (2017) considered a nestling/juvenile period with a mean duration of 2 weeks, so maturation to an older stage was modeled. Since our juvenile stage includes all hatch-year birds, which will not become reproductive adults until the year after they are born, the maturation process is not included in our model.…”

Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the models in Robertson and Caillouët (2016) and Beebe and Robertson (2017) assume logistic growth of the vector population, here total vector density V(t) is determined by a smoothed spline (in MATLAB) of the weekly average Cx. quinquefasciatus abundance per trap night collected in St. Tammany Parish from 2009 to 2018, scaled by a factor of 50 (Caillouët, unpublished data; shown in Fig.…”

Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although storm-related impacts on mosquito populations are well documented for floodwater nuisance species (Brown 1997, Simpson 2006, Breidenbaugh et al 2008, Morrow et al 2010, Lucas et al 2019, the impact on West Nile virus (WNV) vectors is less well known. Hurricane impacts on vector populations appear to be variable with respect to time since landfall and damage dependent.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal and Spatial Impacts of Hurricane Damage on West Nile Virus Transmission and Human Risk

Caillouët

Robertson

2020

Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association

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Hurricanes have profound impacts on zoonotic pathogen ecosystems that exhibit spatial and temporal waves in both distance from and time since the event. Wind, rain, and storm surge directly affect mosquito vectors and animal hosts of these pathogens. In this analysis, we apply a West Nile virus transmission model parameterized for the Northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico to explore the effect of event timing of hurricane landfall, time since the event, and damage extent on human West Nile virus neuro-invasive disease (WNV-NID) risk. Early-season hurricanes, which make landfall prior to the peak of baseline WNV transmission activity, increase the average total WNV-infectious mosquitoes for the year by 7.8% and human WNV-NID incidence by 94.3% across all areas with hurricane damage. The indirect effects on human exposure to mosquito bites in the immediate aftermath and long-term recovery from the event have strong impacts on the risk of infection. The resultant interactive direct and indirect storm effects on the pathogen system are spatially and temporally heterogenous among the generalized time and space categories modeled.

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Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Temporal and Spatial Impacts of Hurricane Damage on West Nile Virus Transmission and Human Risk

Caillouët

Robertson

2020

Journal of the American Mosquito Control Association

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“…Mathematical models of WNV transmission have proven useful to explore the ecological factors responsible for outbreaks (Abdelrazec, Lenhart, & Zhu, ; Beebe & Robertson, ; Jiang, Qiu, Wu, & Zhu, ; Lord & Day, ; Robertson & Caillouët, ; Simpson et al., ; Wonham, de Camino‐Beck, & Lewis, ; Wonham, Lewis, Renclawowicz, & Van den Driessche, ). Recently, several studies have assessed the impact of various practical WNV control strategies within the framework of a transmission model to determine relative cost‐effectiveness (Abdelrazek, Lenhart, & Zhu, ; Blayneh, Gumel, Lenhart, & Clayton, ; Nie & Shen, ; Xu, Xiao, & Cheke, ; Zhou, Xiao, & Cheke, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods for prophylactic management of West Nile virus using a stage‐structured avian host‐vector model with vaccination, larvicide, and adulticide

Schaefer

Caillouët

Robertson

2018

Natural Resource Modeling

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West Nile virus (WNV) is a vector‐borne disease spread primarily between birds and mosquitoes. In the United States, the main methods used to control WNV are aimed at lowering the vector population through reducing births (larvicide) or increasing the mortality of adults (adulticide). We investigate the potential of a novel control, vaccination of newborn birds (nestlings). We first apply standard optimal control (OC) methodology to a nonautonomous differential equation model for WNV transmission incorporating avian stage structure and allowing larvicide, adulticide, and nestling vaccination. We convert the continuous OC results to practical advice that accounts for restrictions on the frequency of control application in the field. We then develop an alternative optimization algorithm using genetic algorithms and compare control advice for various budget constraints. We find that vaccination is recommended, provided budgets are sufficiently high, and explore how differences in control efficacy and vector biting rates on host stages affect our results. Recommendations for Resource Managers: Genetic algorithms are able to incorporate practical restrictions on control application as well as budget constraints. Advice depends on the efficacies of controls as well as model parameters. At high‐efficacy estimates, adulticide is recommended for low budgets. Vaccination is recommended when budgets are sufficiently high, and sooner for scenarios where nestling hosts have increased vector exposure. If vector control has low efficacy and nestlings have increased vector exposure relative to older hosts, including vaccination may reduce levels of infectious mosquitoes below those resulting from high‐efficacy vector control alone.

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A two-species stage-structured model forWest Nile virustransmission

Cited by 2 publications

References 26 publications

Temporal and Spatial Impacts of Hurricane Damage on West Nile Virus Transmission and Human Risk

Temporal and Spatial Impacts of Hurricane Damage on West Nile Virus Transmission and Human Risk

Methods for prophylactic management of West Nile virus using a stage‐structured avian host‐vector model with vaccination, larvicide, and adulticide

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