Temporal and Spatial Impacts of Hurricane Damage on West Nile Virus Transmission and Human Risk

Abstract

Hurricanes have profound impacts on zoonotic pathogen ecosystems that exhibit spatial and temporal waves in both distance from and time since the event. Wind, rain, and storm surge directly affect mosquito vectors and animal hosts of these pathogens. In this analysis, we apply a West Nile virus transmission model parameterized for the Northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico to explore the effect of event timing of hurricane landfall, time since the event, and damage extent on human West Nile virus neuro-invasive disease (WNV-NID) risk. Early-season hurricanes, which make landfall prior to the peak of baseline WNV transmission activity, increase the average total WNV-infectious mosquitoes for the year by 7.8% and human WNV-NID incidence by 94.3% across all areas with hurricane damage. The indirect effects on human exposure to mosquito bites in the immediate aftermath and long-term recovery from the event have strong impacts on the risk of infection. The resultant interactive direct and indirect storm effects on the pathogen system are spatially and temporally heterogenous among the generalized time and space categories modeled.

Identifying Knowledge Gaps through the Systematic Review of Temperature-Driven Variability in the Competence of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus for Chikungunya Virus

“…Hurricanes in Louisiana have an impact on existing mosquito-borne disease systems. There was an increase in neuroinvasive West Nile disease incidence of 94.3% across areas with hurricane-induced damage [62]. Mosquitoes and the risk they pose to public health as disease vectors was highlighted in 2018 [63] by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the American Mosquito Control Association in an effort to devise the first-ever guidance for mosquito control after natural disasters [64].…”

Retrospective Assessment of Preparedness for Mosquito Control Post-Hurricane Florence in North Carolina

“…4 The risk of arbovirus transmission may, in some instances, be delayed by months after a flooding event due to a variety of behavioral, ecological, and interacting biotic and abiotic factors. 5,6 Furthermore, an increase in mosquito abundance does not always result in arbovirus transmission; hence, spatiotemporal factors, vector competence, vector blood feeding preference, preventive measures, and other factors must also be considered in risk assessments. 4,7 West Nile virus (WNV), dengue virus (DENV), malaria, and other mosquito-borne pathogens may be public health concerns after disasters, depending on the region.…”