A Transformation of the Approach to Evaluating a Region’s Investment Attractiveness as a Consequence of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Rodionov, Dmitriy; Konnikov, Evgenii; Nasrutdinov, M.N.

doi:10.3390/economies9020059

Cited by 16 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…The regARIMA time-series analysis model used in this study combines the benefits of ARIMA and linear regression, capturing autocorrelations in the data and enabling the inclusion of exogenous variables to improve forecast performance [ 40 ]. Additionally, its output is easier to interpret than is that of ARIMA models with explanatory variables (ARIMAX), which belong to the same hybrid model family [ 68 ], and regARIMA model use has been proposed for complex research objects [ 69 ]. Thus, regARIMA is the most appropriate model for our study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

et al. 2023

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Background Mathematical and statistical models are used to predict trends in epidemic spread and determine the effectiveness of control measures. Automatic regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models are used for time-series forecasting, but only few models of the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic have incorporated protective behaviors or vaccination, known to be effective for pandemic control. Methods To improve the accuracy of prediction, we applied newly developed ARIMA models with predictors (mask wearing, avoiding going out, and vaccination) to forecast weekly COVID-19 case growth rates in Canada, France, Italy, and Israel between January 2021 and March 2022. The open-source data was sourced from the YouGov survey and Our World in Data. Prediction performance was evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE) and the corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc). Results A model with mask wearing and vaccination variables performed best for the pandemic period in which the Alpha and Delta viral variants were predominant (before November 2021). A model using only past case growth rates as autoregressive predictors performed best for the Omicron period (after December 2021). The models suggested that protective behaviors and vaccination are associated with the reduction of COVID-19 case growth rates, with booster vaccine coverage playing a particularly vital role during the Omicron period. For example, each unit increase in mask wearing and avoiding going out significantly reduced the case growth rate during the Alpha/Delta period in Canada (–0.81 and –0.54, respectively; both p < 0.05). In the Omicron period, each unit increase in the number of booster doses resulted in a significant reduction of the case growth rate in Canada (–0.03), Israel (–0.12), Italy (–0.02), and France (–0.03); all p < 0.05. Conclusions The key findings of this study are incorporating behavior and vaccination as predictors led to accurate predictions and highlighted their significant role in controlling the pandemic. These models are easily interpretable and can be embedded in a “real-time” schedule with weekly data updates. They can support timely decision making about policies to control dynamically changing epidemics.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

et al. 2023

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“…The scale of FDI directly depends on the country's attractiveness from the perspective of potential investors (Kozlova & Collan, 2020;Rodionov et al, 2021;Godlewska-Majkowska & Komor, 2021;Ly et al, 2018). It is a complex size that combines many indicators within itself.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Assessment of Economic Development in the Countries of the European Union

Тріщ

Sichinava

Bartoš

et al. 2023

Journal of Business Economics and Management

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Investment, the entry of foreign firms depends of a large extent on the country’s goodwill, which is reflected in various ratings. This representation of the situation is approximate, as it does not estimate the differences between the values of the indicators with adjacent grades. This can be avoided by dividing countries into homogeneous groups. It is appropriate to do so on the basis of non-linear grouping rather than linear grouping. It is based on the transformation of data into a dimensionless scale and linear grouping. In the case, its homogeneity increases thanks to the levelling of the most distinctive values and the alignment of the statistical characteristics of the groups. The aim of the article is to propose in principle, a new approach to the ranking of countries on the basis of their level of economic development. It was found that the nonlinear decision of countries into homogenous groups and compared to the linear grouping more accurately reflect the current situation.

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“…Во-вторых, особые условия и элементы, формирующие привлекательность региона, предопределяют конкурентную позицию как стратегический фактор [Урузбаева, 2016], определяющий разную степень регионального экономического и социального роста [Aiginger et al, 2015]. Инвестиционная привлекательность региона в основном определяется созданием благоприятной бизнес-среды [Development ... , 2019;Rodionov et al, 2021]. Таким образом, результаты оценки отчетов VCCI по индексу конкурентоспособности провинций (далее -PCI) используются для оценки конкурентоспособности регионов Вьетнама.…”

Section: теоретические подходы к анализу конкурентоспособности вьетнамаunclassified

Regional Competitiveness: A Critical Theoretical Review and Implications for Empirical Analysis in Vietnam

Phan¹,

Buyanova²,

Kryukova³

2022

Vestn. Volgogr. gos. univ. Econom.

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Today, academic research shows that there have been major changes in the concept of competitiveness at the national and regional level. On the one hand, the concept has turned from a purely foreign trade orientation into a broader view of meeting the growing needs of people and businesses, prosperity and sustainable development. On the other hand, while competitiveness before the push was based solely on the level of production costs, today, based on a strategic view of increasing productivity, specialization, quality and innovation are taken into account. Like their national counterparts, regional and local politicians have become concerned about knowing the relative competitiveness of their local economy compared to other economies. Various organizations took part in the assessment of regional competitiveness, offering their own criteria and indicators to measure the competitiveness of any region. However, the fragmented and fragmentary nature of this work in Vietnam has led to the lack of substantial theoretical justification for the various methods of analysis and measurement used. The purpose of the article, firstly, is to give an overview of the theory and development of the concept of competitiveness. Secondly, to use the advantages of existing methods of assessing competitiveness to build a basis for analyzing Vietnam’s competitiveness, taking into account the spatial extent of the territory represented. The results of the analysis can be used in the development and implementation of policies to improve national and regional competitiveness.

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A Transformation of the Approach to Evaluating a Region’s Investment Attractiveness as a Consequence of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cited by 16 publications

References 20 publications

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

Real-time forecasting of COVID-19 spread according to protective behavior and vaccination: autoregressive integrated moving average models

Comparative Assessment of Economic Development in the Countries of the European Union

Regional Competitiveness: A Critical Theoretical Review and Implications for Empirical Analysis in Vietnam

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