A Time-Series Analysis of War and Levels of Interpersonal Violence in an English Military Town, 1700-1781

Abstract

More than 7,000 assaults were reported to the magistrates of Portsmouth, England, between 1700 and 1781. Time-series analyses were run to see (1) what effects, if any, war had on levels of aggression and (2) whether overall levels of aggression decreased over time. Aggression was measured in two ways: (1) the extent to which assailants ganged up on adversaries and (2) levels of violence in individual confrontations (whether a weapon was used, and if so, what type; whether assailants refrained from using a weapon; and whether they stopped short of physical violence and instead merely insulted or threatened their enemies). Neither measure showed a significant variation over time. The participation of women in brawls decreased, but the aggressiveness of those who continued to brawl actually increased. Complaints about insults and threats declined, while complaints of a more serious nature showed a modest increase, reflecting, among other things, the emergence of new definitions of actionable behavior.For nearly a generation the eighteenth century has been identified as a turning point in the history of interpersonal violence, as the century when Europeans began to master their tempers. Outbursts, whether measured by homicides, physical assaults, or the mere threat of violence, are supposed to have declined during this time, reflecting new values and new standards of conduct. Self-control is supposed to have become a virtue and a social marker, a change helped along by a narrowing of the ways personal honor was defined and could be challenged (Ingram 2000: 160; Shoemaker 2004: 71-74).

The Effects of Wars on Postwar Homicide Rates: A Replication and Extension of Archer and Gartner’s Classic Study

“…Several other studies examined the influence of wars on violence in countries other than the United States. In an analysis of 7,000 cases of assault in Portsmouth, England, between 1700 and 1781, Warner, Gmel, Graham, and Erickson (2007) did not find a significant relationship between war involvement and aggression. They argued that the legitimation of violence model may work "in societies in which violence is exceptional, but the situation may be more complicated in societies where violence is already endemic" (Warner et al, 2007, p. 595).…”

Review of periodical literature published in 2007

“…The attempt to introduce universal standards of conduct was, in practice, subject to wide‐ranging interpretations by the courts themselves. The eighteenth century generally saw a decline in interpersonal crime, but in Portsmouth, as Warner et al. show from an analysis of more than 7,000 assaults committed between 1700 and 1781, there was little significant change in the incidence of violence, largely due to its atypical social structure. Meanwhile, Poole analyses Bristol's reputation as a hotbed of sodomy, together with the difficulties encountered by the local judiciary in the 1730s in securing convictions, and Barrie analyses the political and social struggles of the 1830s and 1840s that led to the decline of the Glasgow Police Commission.…”

Using historical context to identify confounders, mechanisms and modifiers in aggregate level studies of the relationship between alcohol consumption and violent crime

“…liberalism and enhanced enforcement, respectively) that simply happened to co‐occur and result in a high (but spurious) correlation between alcohol consumption and violence. A good example of applying historical context to explaining alcohol use and violence is the work of Jessica Warner, explaining historical factors affecting youth drinking [3] and using time‐series analyses to assess the relationship between violence and key changes in historical context [4].…”