The Effects of Wars on Postwar Homicide Rates: A Replication and Extension of Archer and Gartner’s Classic Study

Stamatel, Janet P.; Romans, Samuel H.

doi:10.1177/1043986218769989

Cited by 7 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 41 publications

(79 reference statements)

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“…increased tobacco and alcohol use) to increased cardiovascular disease risk [ 39 ]. Our positive associations between war and injuries, including self-harm and interpersonal violence, also align with recently published literature [ 40 , 41 ].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990–2017

Jawad

Hone

Vámos

et al. 2020

BMC Med

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Background Armed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups. Methods We included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths. Results We identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality—driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (β 81.5, 95% CI 14.3–148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1–36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (β 51.3, 95% CI 2.6–99.9); non-communicable diseases (β 22.7, 95% CI 0.2–45.2); and injuries (β 7.6, 95% CI 3.4–11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3–25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1–8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7–3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0–5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality. Conclusions Armed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 90%

Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990–2017

Jawad

Hone

Vámos

et al. 2020

BMC Med

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“…There are definitively short-term lagged effects on soldiers returning from wars and postwar increases in homicide and suicide rates. Archer and Gartner (1984) found that homicide rates rise after nations participate in wars at home or abroad and rise most after the wars in which the killing is greatest-a result replicated by Stamatel and Romans (2018). Ghobarah et al (2003) confirmed this cross-nationally for suicide as well as homicide.…”

Section: Global Decivilisation (1911-1953)?mentioning

confidence: 79%

“…The discussion simply skates through the quantitative evidence on these intertwined cascades of violence that are discussed in more detail in that book. Archer and Gartner (1984) were the first to demonstrate systematically an association between the involvement of a nation in war and the subsequent elevation of its homicide rate (results replicated by Stamatel and Romans 2018). Thorsten Sellin (1926), half a century earlier, discussed less systematic data consistent with this conclusion, and before that Bonger (1916: 518), in 1905, diagnosed war as legitimating violence and neutralising norms of nonviolence (see Gartner and Kennedy 2018).…”

Section: Cascades Of Anomie and Hopelessnessmentioning

confidence: 98%

Macrocriminology and Freedom

Braithwaite

2022

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A true magnum opus, Macrocriminology and Freedom is a thought provoking and generative book from one of criminology's intellectual giants. John Braithwaite reaches far and wide across societies, time, and disciplines to advance no less than a theory of how to build a society that simultaneously reduces both domination and crime. His ambitious ideas on cascades of non-dominating collective efficacy and crime prevention, for example, and their connections to social movements and political freedom, go well beyond usual criminological discourse. Chock full of theoretical propositions and bold insights, this a book that will keep criminologists busy for years. Macrocriminology and Freedom should not just be read, but better yet, savoured.' -Robert J. Sampson, Henry Ford II Professor of the Social Sciences, Harvard University 'In this majestic theorisation of the relationship between crime and freedom John Braithwaite isolates the unique power of macrocriminology as a lens through which to comprehend and challenge many of the fundamental crises facing our planet. Very few scholars have the breadth and overview to succeed in a mission of this order … Braithwaite does. This extraordinary book is an object lesson for all who seek to understand and resist domination and the crimes of power that flow from it.' -Penny Green, Professor of Law and Globalisation, Queen Mary University of London 'For over 40 years, John Braithwaite has been a voice of wisdom, hope and humanity in criminology. This dazzling new book weaves together all the main themes of his influential work, reanimating many of the core concepts of the discipline, as well as incorporating interdisciplinary resources from south and north, east and west, to produce an elegant and ambitious explanatory and normative account of crime as freedom-threatening domination. Decentring criminal justice as the solution to crime, Braithwaite shows that, on a global scale, the aspiration to tackle crimes, ranging from interpersonal violence through corporate crimes to ecocide, lies in the development of freedom-enhancing, power-tempering institutions in the political, economic and social spheres.' -Nicola Lacey, Professor of Law, Gender and Social Policy, London School of Economics 'Macrocriminology and Freedom is a criminological epic, an expansive and erudite story that sweeps across history and contexts. The book is frightening in showing how cascading events can produce catastrophes from crime to environmental destruction. But in the end, its message is hopeful, identifying pathways-or "normative rivers"-for guiding freedom from domination and crime. Drawing on his distinguished career, John Braithwaite has bestowed an extraordinary gift-a book, like other masterpieces, that will yield special insights each time we take an excursion through its pages.' -

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“…Steenkamp (2005) continues Archer and Garner's perspective and states that a culture of violence is created through violent ethnonational clashes and encourages further acts of violence, which explains outbreaks of violence in post-conflict societies, a culture of violence. However, Stamatel and Romans (2018) examined the validity of Archer and Gartner's theory introducing additional variables according to modern societies. Nonetheless, they found no evidence supporting the argument for the legitimization of violence due to constraints in sample selection and the inclusion of variables such as demographics, globalization, modernization, securitization, and democratization, which play a more significant role in influencing interpersonal violence than participation in war in modern societies.…”

Section: Literature In Post-conflict Violencementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of a Less Repressive Counternarcotics Policy on Post-conflict Violence

Alvarez

2024

Preprint

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<p>This paper examines the connection between post-conflict violence and crime incentives. The argument is that violence should increase after the peace signature due to the regulatory role of illegal actors in a war economy. Colombia made history by signing a peace agreement with the FARC guerrillas, which was hailed as one of the most inclusive and progressive ever but also marked a significant shift towards a less repressive counternarcotics policy. Contrary to expectations, the peace agreements led to a rise in homicide rates in areas previously controlled by FARC. By integrating multiple datasets and using comparative interrupted time series, this paper reveals a significant change in homicide rates in municipalities with previous FARC presence after the peace accords. The rise in post-conflict violence in these municipalities is ascribed to the combination of FARC withdrawal and unanticipated crime incentives, which does not necessarily imply the failure of the counternarcotics policy. </p>

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The Effects of Wars on Postwar Homicide Rates: A Replication and Extension of Archer and Gartner’s Classic Study

Cited by 7 publications

References 41 publications

Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990–2017

Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990–2017

Macrocriminology and Freedom

The Effects of a Less Repressive Counternarcotics Policy on Post-conflict Violence

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