A Theoretical Model to Investigate the Influence of Temperature, Reactions of the Population and the Government on the COVID-19 Outbreak in Turkey

Abstract

Objective: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which was initially identified in December 2019 in the city of Wuhan in China, poses a major threat to the worldwide health care. By August 04, 2020, there were globally 6958481 deaths. 57651 of them come from Turkey. As a result, various governments and their respective populations have taken strong measures to control the spread of the pandemic. In this study, a model that is by construction able to describe both government actions and individual reactions in addition to the well known exponential spread is presented. Moreover, the influence of the weather is included. This approach demonstrates a quantitative method to track these dynamic influences. This makes it possible to numerically estimate the influence that various private or state measures which were put into effect due the purpose of containing the pandemic had at time t. This might serve governments across the world by allowing them to plan their actions based on quantitative data in order to minimize the social and economic consequences of their containment strategies. Methods: A compartmental model based on SEIR that includes the risk perception of the population by an additional differential equation and uses an implicit time-dependent transmission rate is constructed. Within this model, the transmission rate depends on temperature, population and government actions which in turn depend on time. The model was tested using different scenarios, with the different dynamic influences being mathematically switched on and off. In addition, the real data of infected coronavirus cases in Turkey were compared with the results of the model. Results: The mathematical study of the influence of the different parameters is presented through different scenarios. Remarkably, the last scenario is also an example of a theoretical mitigation strategy that shows its maximum in August 2020. In addition, the results of the model are compared with the real data from Turkey using conventional fitting that shows good agreement. Conclusions: Although most countries activated their pandemic plans, significant disruptions in health care systems occurred. The framework of this model seems to be valid for a numerical analysis of dynamic processes that occur during the COVID-19 outbreak due to weather and human reactions. As a result, the effects of the measures introduced could be better planned in advance by use of this model.

Using a Process Approach to Pandemic Planning: A Case Study

“…The unexpected finding was that no one had yet addressed or built the pandemic plan as a process. Koç and Türko glu [70] forecasted using a multilayer long short-term memory (LSTM) network, Öz [69] developed an SEIR-based model, and Itzwerth et al [74] suggested using business continuity management and business continuity planning. This research can help to fill that void.…”

“…In addition to the well-known exponential range, Öz [69] introduced a model that is structurally capable of describing both government actions and individual reactions. In addition, the weather effect is included.…”

“…Öz [69] built an SEIR-based model that includes the population's risk perception via an additional differential equation and employs an implicit time-dependent transmission rate.…”