This paper aims to establish a mathematical error model for surface temperature measurement based on FBG and to enhance its measurement precision. Firstly, an improved temperature-sensing model for FBG was established. Subsequently, the mathematical model for FBG-based surface temperature measurement error was developed. The experiments were conducted using a controllable surface heat source. Experimental results demonstrate good consistency among the errors obtained from the mathematical model, the finite element model, and experimental testing. Finally, corrosion processing and thermally conductive silicone packaging methods were proposed, elevating the bare FBG's surface temperature measurement accuracy from approximately 4°C to approximately 1°C.