A Target Motad Approach to Marketing Strategy Selection for Soybeans

Curtis, Charles E.; Pfeiffer, George H.; Lutgen, Lynn; Frank, Stuart D.

doi:10.2307/1349389

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The ability to measure risk from an independent reference point, rather than the mean, is an advantage of Target MOTAD over mean-variance or MOTAD procedures. Target MOTAD has been used in agricultural marketing (McKinnell, Kahl, and Curtis 1990;Curtis et al 1987), agricultural production planning incorporating risk (Vandeveer, Paxton, and Lavergne 1989;Parton and Cumming 1990;Novak, Mitchell, and Crews 1990) and agricultural production planning incorporating environmental targets (Teague, Bernardo, and Mapp 1995a, b).…”

Section: Target Minimization Of Total Absolute Deviationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeting Economic Diversification: An Application of Target MOTAD Procedures

Harris¹,

Seung²,

Narayanan³

2001

Review of Regional Studies

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With rapid change in national, state, and local economies, many economic development agencies and practitioners have attempted to diversify state and local economies to minimize the variability of state and local economic activity. However, minimizing variability may reduce expected economic growth, which may run contrary to the desires of state and/ or local officials. This paper applies Minimization of Total Absolute Deviations (MOT AD) and Target Minimization of Total Absolute Deviations (Target MOTAD) for economic diversification plans. MOTAD procedures,• which are a linear programming algorithm for portfolio analysis, minimize positive and negative deviations from mean growth rates. Target MOT AD, unlike portfolio variance and MOTAD procedures, minimizes only negative deviations from targeted economic growth rates. Economic diversification plans derived from MOT AD and Target MOT AD procedures are compared and contrasted.

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Section: Target Minimization Of Total Absolute Deviationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Targeting Economic Diversification: An Application of Target MOTAD Procedures

Harris¹,

Seung²,

Narayanan³

2001

Review of Regional Studies

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“…Academicamente muitos estudos descrevem os benefícios que os agricultores podem obter ao usar essas estratégias (Bolen et al, 1978;Curtis, 1987;Musse et al, 1996;Godwin e Kastens, 1996;De Lima Oliveira e Pereira, 2008;Brum, 2002;Brum et al 2013). No entanto, esses estudos assumem o pressuposto de que os agricultores são agentes econômicos racionais na utilização dessas estratégias.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Aspectos comportamentais na comercialização de soja: Um estudo com produtores do Noroeste gaúcho

Brum¹,

Dill²

2023

CLCS

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O objetivo deste estudo foi identificar vieses comportamentais na tomada de decisão de agricultores ao comercializar suas produções de soja e comparar os resultados obtidos com uma estratégia mecânica de comercialização, isenta de vieses. A pesquisa, com abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa, foi realizada em três etapas. Na primeira, buscando identificar possíveis vieses no processo de tomada de decisão, foi realizada entrevista em profundidade com o gestor de uma empresa cerealista para conhecer as estratégias utilizadas pelos agricultores ao comercializar suas produções de soja. Na segunda, foram analisados 608 contratos de venda antecipada a termo de soja com o objetivo de identificar estratégias de comercialização e os resultados auferidos pelos agricultores. Na terceira, foi realizada simulação com a estratégia stop loss no intuito de isolar fatores comportamentais. Os resultados da pesquisa mostram indícios de vieses comportamentais, como a facilidade de lembrança, interpretação errada da chance, excesso de confiança e a armadilha da confirmação. A estratégia stop loss mostrou redução nas perdas de R$ -12.813.716 para R$ -1.168.005, aumento no número de contratos ganhadores e redução no número de contratos perdedores. Por fim, o estudo mostra que os vieses comportamentais podem estar influenciando à tomada de decisão dos agricultores ao comercializar suas produções de soja por meio de contratos de venda antecipada a termo.

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“…However, it can be argued that the pricing strategies based on these sophisticated technical indicators are too complex for producers to understand, and therefore will not be adopted by producers. The moving average crossover (MAC) pricing strategy is a less complex strategy that is easily understood by decision-makers, since it uses the activity of two simple moving averages to inform buying or selling decisions during the marketing year [21][22][23][24][25]. Furthermore, several researchers have demonstrated the potential of the MAC pricing strategy to dominate other strategies [23][24][25].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing a Moving Average Crossover Strategy as an Alternative Hedging Strategy for the South Africa Maize Market

Monteiro¹,

Grové²,

Matthews³

2022

Agriculture

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Grain marketing is complex because important decisions are made on the timing of sales and the quantities sold at every trading activity. The literature suggest various grain-hedging strategies, however these strategies are not adaptable to changing market conditions or are difficult for a producer to implement. To address these limitations, our study developed tailor-made moving average crossover (MAC) strategies that are adaptable to changing market conditions and can be easily followed by risk neutral and risk averse grain producers. The study used daily closing prices for the white maize May futures contract for the period 2009/2010 to 2019/2020. An optimization model was solved using the evolutionary algorithm embedded in Excel® to identify the optimal MAC strategy that maximizes the margin above marketing cost for a risk aversion level. The results showed that optimal MAC strategies differ amongst producers with different levels of risk aversion. Furthermore, it was found that the risk-averse producers perform best by marketing their grain early in the marketing season. Meanwhile, the risk-neutral producers perform better by spreading their marketing activities throughout the season. The results further showed that the optimal MAC strategies performed better than the previously proposed routine strategies. The conclusion is therefore that an optimal MAC strategy outperforms routine strategies because of its ability to adapt to changing market conditions, while still being easy to implement.

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A Target Motad Approach to Marketing Strategy Selection for Soybeans

Cited by 9 publications

References 2 publications

Targeting Economic Diversification: An Application of Target MOTAD Procedures

Targeting Economic Diversification: An Application of Target MOTAD Procedures

Aspectos comportamentais na comercialização de soja: Um estudo com produtores do Noroeste gaúcho

Developing a Moving Average Crossover Strategy as an Alternative Hedging Strategy for the South Africa Maize Market

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