A systematic investigation into the reliability of inter-temporal choice model parameters

Ballard, Timothy; Luckman, Ashley; Konstantinidis, Emmanouil

doi:10.31234/osf.io/mvk67

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(87 reference statements)

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“…The analysis in this section aims to illustrate how individuals characterized by high or low recency would adapt to different conditions of direction of change (e.g., from increasing to decreasing conditions and vice versa). This exercise helps explore whether model parameters can only be considered in the decision environment in which they have been calibrated/fitted, or whether they represent unique psychological features of each individual (see related discussion in Ballard et al, 2021;Harman et al, 2021).…”

Section: Ibl Model Generalizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of choice adaptation in dynamic risky environments

2022

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An important aspect of making good decisions is the ability to adapt to changes in the values of available choice options, and research suggests that we are poor at changing behavior and adapting our choices successfully. The current paper contributes to clarifying the role of memory on learning and successful adaptation to changing decision environments. We test two aspects of changing decision environments: the direction of change and the type of feedback. The direction of change refers to how options become more or less rewarding compared to other options, over time. Feedback refers to whether full or partial information about decision outcomes is received. Results from behavioral experiments revealed a robust effect of the direction of change: risk that becomes more rewarding over time is harder to detect than risk that becomes less rewarding over time; even with full feedback. We rely on three distinct computational models to interpret the role of memory on learning and adaptation. The distributions of individual model parameters were analyzed in relation to participants’ ability to successfully adapt to the changing conditions of the various decision environments. Consistent across the three models and two distinct data sets, results revealed the importance of recency as an individual memory component for choice adaptation. Individuals relying more on recent experiences were more successful at adapting to change, regardless of its direction. We explain the value and limitations of these findings as well as opportunities for future research.

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Section: Ibl Model Generalizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns of choice adaptation in dynamic risky environments

2022

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“…Parameter recovery involves simulating behavioral data for a model based on known parameters (i.e., parameters estimated from a real dataset of participants' responses), fitting the model to the simulated data, and then comparing the newly-generated (i.e., recovered) parameter estimates to the original, known parameters. Parameter recovery is necessary for valid interpretation of a parameter fit (Hübner & Pelzer, 2020), and can provide insight into the reliability of parameter estimation (Ballard et al, 2020;Shahar et al, 2019).…”

Section: Parameter Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the reliability and stability of cognitive processes contributing to responses on the Implicit Association Test

Elder¹,

Wilson;Wilson²,

Calanchini³

2022

Preprint

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Implicit measures were initially assumed to assess stable individual differences, but other perspectives posit that they instead reflect context-dependent processes. The present, pre-registered research investigates the extent to which responses on the Implicit Association Test reflect stable versus context-dependent processes using multinomial processing tree modeling to disentangle the joint contributions of multiple cognitive processes. We applied two models – the Quad model and the Process Dissociation Procedure – to six independent datasets (total N = 2,036), each collected in a repeated-measures design over two occasions, examined the retest reliability and internal consistency of model parameters, and meta-analyzed the results. Parameters reflecting control-oriented processes in both models demonstrate adequate within-measurement recoverability and fair between-measurement retest reliability, which suggests that these processes are relatively stable within individuals. In contrast, parameters reflecting evaluative associations demonstrate moderate recoverability but poor retest reliability, which suggests that these processes are not stable within individuals. These findings illustrate that the extent to which implicit attitudes are state- or trait-like depends on the process in question, which has practical implications for predicting behavior using the Implicit Association Test.

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