A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus

Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Lutz, Arthur; Gernaat, David; Nepal, Santosh; Smolenaars, Wouter; Pradhananga, Saurav; Biemans, Hester; Ludwig, Fulco; Shrestha, A. B.; Immerzeel, Walter W.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147142

Cited by 22 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 74 publications

(156 reference statements)

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“…Dhaubanjar et al [34] provides the first theoretical framework that can assess the sustainable hydropower potential of the Indus basin. The selection of the Indus basin for this study is due to its high theoretical potential that combines with transboundary water issues, socio economic challenges, landscape vulnerability and high-water demand.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the Indus Basin Model for an Energy Sustainable Pakistan

Hashmi

Bhatti

Ahmed

et al. 2022

Water

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Water is vital and an essential entity directly and indirectly for all living creatures from their birth, whereas electrical energy has a dominant role in the growth of society in general and for human beings in particular. Optimal use of water and production of electrical energy at minimum cost are potential research challenges. Hydraulic energy is one of the cheapest and the most exploited renewable energy resource for power generation worldwide, and is in line with the seventh United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 7). The Indus basin is a trans-boundary basin, and its modeling has been a source of interest for scientists and policymakers. Indus Basin Model Revised (IBMR) has many variants, all focusing on optimal use of water for irrigation purposes. In this paper, the modified IBMR model is proposed addressing both agriculture and power generation aspects simultaneously. This model optimizes the Consumer Producer Surplus (CPS) by considering different water inflow probabilities. A parameter has been introduced in the modified objective function to manipulate the supply of water to agriculture and hydropower generation. The proposed model has been implemented in Generic Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) and case studies have been investigated in presence and absence of power generation. The results obtained show that, with incorporation of hydropower, basin wide income is increased up to 11.83% using 50% exceedance probability, and results are in agreement with reference power generation estimated by National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC). The SDG 7 targets ensure the reasonable, dependable, sustainable and contemporary energy access to all. The current research is focusing on how Pakistan would achieve the SDG 7 targets. By 2040, it is anticipated that Pakistan’s energy mix will have around 40% of hydropower and 16% of renewable energy.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Revisiting the Indus Basin Model for an Energy Sustainable Pakistan

Hashmi

Bhatti

Ahmed

et al. 2022

Water

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“…Blackouts are frequent in the cities, which last about 8-10 h a day during the summer season. In rural areas, these power outages are often double the frequency (Dhaubanjar et al, 2021).…”

Section: The Lack Of Storage Capacitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Water management in Pakistan's Indus Basin: challenges and opportunities

et al. 2021

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The Indus River System is a major source of life in Pakistan. A vast array of Pakistan's agricultural and domestic consumption needs are critically dependent on the Indus River System. The Indus River contributes towards 25% of the country's gross domestic product, providing water for almost 90% of the food production in Pakistan. Linked to the water security issues, Pakistan is potentially at risk of facing a severe food shortage in the near future. The World Bank report of 2020–2021 estimates that the water shortage will increase to 32% by 2025, which will result in a food shortage of almost 70 million tons. Water shortage could also result in confrontation between the provinces as river sharing has always been a source of problem for Pakistan. According to recent estimates, siltation and climate change will reduce the water storage capacity by 2025 to almost 30%. As for the per capita water storage capacity in Pakistan, it is about 150 m3, which is quite meagre in comparison with that in other countries. Irrigated agriculture will soon be adversely affected due to the reduced surface water supplies and the consequent increase in groundwater abstraction. To make matters worse, over the past decades, a great deal of distrust has developed among the provinces of Pakistan regarding the water distribution issue, and the successive federal governments have failed to formulate a cohesive inter-provincial National Water Policy. Along with the shortages and increasing demand for water, administrative corruption also plagues the water sector and is quite common. The beneficiaries of this water reallocation system are not only the rural elite, for example the large and politically influential landlords, but also the small and medium capitalist farmers. If not properly addressed, these complications of decreasing water resources could result in serious political and economic hostility among the provinces. If it wants to harness its potential to increase storage capacity, Pakistan must improve its water-use efficiency and manage its groundwater and surface water resources in a sustainable way. Strengthening the institutions and removing mistrust among the provinces are the key elements for maintaining a sustainable irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin.

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“…It is used to predict extreme events such as floods, hurricanes, and earthquakes. The exceedance probability P can be calculated using Equation (5).…”

Section: Flow Duration Curvementioning

confidence: 99%

“…× 100 (5) where M specifies the ranked position on the listing (dimensionless) and n denotes the number of events during the data record. The exceedance predicts the probability of a given streamflow [11].…”

Section: Flow Duration Curvementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Human development has been increasing at a substantial rate since the Industrial Revolution [1], at the expense of anthropogenic activities causing land use changes, an increase in emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and therefore climate change [2]. Both changes in climate and anthropogenic activities can affect hydrological processes of a river catchment [3,4], thus impacting on water resources, hydropower production [5,6], and crop yield [7]. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [8], GHG emission have caused a 0.85 • C increase in global mean temperature with associated changes in precipitation over the period from 1880 to 2012, thus impacting on the hydrological characteristics of the catchment [9], notably the volume of runoff [10] and peaks value [11], in addition to other runoff characteristics [12].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics

Saifullah

Adnan

Zaman

et al. 2021

Water

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Pakistan is amongst the most water-stressed countries in the world, with changes in the frequency of extreme events, notably droughts, under climate change expected to further increase water scarcity. This study examines the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the runoff of the Kunhar River Basin (KRB) in Pakistan. The Mann Kendall (MK) test detected statistically significant increasing trends in both precipitation and evapotranspiration during the period 1971–2010 over the basin, but with the lack of a statistically significant trend in runoff over the same time-period. Then, a change-point analysis identified changes in the temporal behavior of the annual runoff time series in 1996. Hence, the time series was divided into two time periods, i.e., prior to and after that change: 1971–1996 and 1997–2010, respectively. For the time-period prior to the change point, the analysis revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in precipitation, which is also reflected in the runoff time series, and a decreasing trend in evapotranspiration, albeit lacking statistical significance, was observed. After 1996, however, increasing trends in precipitation and runoff were detected, but the former lacked statistical significance, while no trend in evapotranspiration was noted. Through a hydrological modelling approach reconstructing the natural runoff of the KRB, a 16.1 m3/s (or 15.3%) reduction in the mean flow in the KRB was simulated for the period 1997–2010 in comparison to the period 1971–1996. The trend analyses and modeling study suggest the importance of anthropogenic activities on the variability of runoff over KRB since 1996. The changes in streamflow caused by irrigation, urbanization, and recreational activities, in addition to climate change, have influenced the regional water resources, and there is consequently an urgent need to adapt existing practices for the water requirements of the domestic, agricultural and energy sector to continue being met in the future.

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A systematic framework for the assessment of sustainable hydropower potential in a river basin – The case of the upper Indus

Cited by 22 publications

References 74 publications

Revisiting the Indus Basin Model for an Energy Sustainable Pakistan

Revisiting the Indus Basin Model for an Energy Sustainable Pakistan

Water management in Pakistan's Indus Basin: challenges and opportunities

Hydrological Response of the Kunhar River Basin in Pakistan to Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts on Runoff Characteristics

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