A System Dynamics Model to Predict Municipal Waste Generation and Management Costs in Developing Areas

Abstract

This paper utilized system dynamics modeling as a new analytical approach to predict both the municipal waste generated and the associated disposal costs in developing areas. This approach facilitates the decomposition of general waste into its main components to enable municipalities to manage recyclables and find out the feasibility of performing recycling better rather than disposal by performing comparative disposal cost analysis. This study is different from previous work as it only considers population as a factor to predict the total waste generated and recycled, together with the associated expenditure and disposal cost savings. The approach is verified by applying it to a case study in Nablus and demonstrates the evaluation of the quantity and composition of generated waste by considering population as the main influencing factor. The quantity and composition of municipal solid waste was evaluated to identify opportunities for waste recycling in the Nablus municipality. Municipal solid waste was collected and classified into eight main physical categories. The system dynamics model enable the quantity of each generated component such as plastic and metals to be anticipated together with the cost of recycling or disposal.

The use of system dynamics on urban solid waste management: a literature analysis

“…Guerrero et al (2013) raised the main factors that influence the performance of waste management systems in developing countries. The grouped data resulted in eleven groups: These indicate the many variables that influence the management of USW and, therefore, several authors point out that solid waste management as a complex system (Abeliotis et al, 2009;Kollikkathara et al, 2010;Ojoawo et al, 2012;Al-Khatib et al, 2015;Giannis et al, 2016). SD method helps to conceptualize and rationally analyze the structure, interactions and behavior of complex systems and subsystems to explore, assess and predict their impacts in an integrated manner (Kollikkathara et al, 2010).…”

“…The models proposed in the analyzed articles still consider the revenue obtained from the sale of recyclable materials (Ahmad, 2012;Rahayu et al, 2013;Sudhir et al, 1997;Al-Khatib et al, 2015;Kum et al, 2005;Zanjani et al, 2012;Manasakunkit & Chinda, 2017;Manasakunkit & Chinda, 2014;Manasakunkit, 2013;Matos, 2012;Ribeiro, 2012), electricity generated from landfill gases (Ahmad, 2012), electricity generated from waste incineration (Rahayu et al, 2013), composting (Ahmad, 2012;Rahayu et al, 2013;Zanjani et al, 2012) and the disposal and facilities of waste treatment (Ahmad, 2012). So, in these papers, the revenue with different activities related to the USW management was also included in the SD model.…”

“…On the other hand, the USW management system is also influenced by the operational costs of the process, which includes the stages of collection, separation, treatment and disposal of waste. This cost variable is present in approximately 40% of the articles, demonstrating its relevance for analysis of policy implementation, more realistic estimates of the municipal budget necessary for the maintenance of the system and identification of process improvement (Ahmad, 2012;Alam & Ahmad, 2015;Sufian & Bala, 2007;Akinyemi, 2014;Yeh et al, 2002;Chen et al, 2012;Giannis et al, 2016;Rahayu et al, 2013;Cai & Liu, 2013;Bala et al, 2017;Bala, 2009;Rong, 2004;Sudhir et al, 1997;Massote et al, 2015;Al-Khatib et al, 2015;Kum et al, 2005;Zanjani et al, 2012;Manasakunkit & Chinda, 2017;Manasakunkit & Chinda, 2014;Manasakunkit, 2013;Matos, 2012;Chinda, 2015;Karavezyris et al, 2002;Ulli-Beer et al, 2004a, b;Sukholthaman & Sharp, 2016;Vélez & Mora, 2016;Kum et al, 2004;Rodrigues et al, 2017).…”

Aplikasi Model Sistem Dinamik untuk Evaluasi Skenario Pengelolaan Sampah Di Wilayah Pelayanan Tempat Pengolahan dan Pemrosesan Akhir Sampah (TPPAS) Nambo

“…Pemodelan sistem dinamik dapat membantu untuk mempelajari struktur dan dinamika dari sistem yang kompleks, merancang kebijakan dengan dampak yang tinggi, dan mempercepat keberhasilan dari implementasi dan intervensi (Sterman 2002). Telah banyak peneliti yang menggunakan model yang berbasis sistem dinamik dalam bidang pengelolaan sampah, antara lain untuk mencari alternatif skenario yang efektif dalam mengurangi limbah/sampah (Chaerul et al 2008;Rahayu et al 2013;Zulfinar dan Sembiring 2015;Al-Khatib et al 2015;Fauzan 2017), menurunkan biaya pengelolaan sampah (Kholil 2005;Yudiyanto 2007), meningkatkan kualitas lingkungan (Bala, Arshad, dan Noh 2017), memperpanjang usia pakai lahan urug (Giannis et al 2017;Handono 2010), meningkatkan cakupan pelayanan (Abraham 2017;Febriyanto 2016;Wildanurrizal et al 2014), dan memperoleh operasional pengelolaan sampah yang stabil dan berkelanjutan secara ekonomi dan lingkungan (Cai dan Liu 2013) Dibandingkan dengan beberapa studi di atas, variabel penyusun model dari aspek teknis operasional dan aspek pembiayaan dibuat lebih rinci dengan data input dan data output yang lebih beragam. Model sistem dinamik dibuat berdasarkan kondisi umum pengelolaan sampah di Indonesia sehingga dapat diaplikasikan untuk kota/kabupaten lainnya.…”

Utilization Management of Landfill Zones Based on Volume of Municipal Organic Waste Simulation

“…A various study using system dynamics have been used in modeling and simulating of the municipal waste volume in various countries [4] [6] [7] [8] where these researches are used as references in the modeling and simulation of this study. Modeling and simulation with system dynamic approaches used to analyzing of causal factors, dependencies, mutual interactions, and feedback of information as a method for creating, analyzing, and designing a new policy [9].…”