A system dynamics model for optimal allocation of natural gas to various demand sectors

Daneshzand, Farzaneh; Amin-Naseri, Mohammad Reza; Asali, Mehdi; Elkamel, Ali; Fowler, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.compchemeng.2019.05.040

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…In Wu and Ning [53], GIS software was used to visually analyse the results of the SD model representing Beijing's districts. Five other works [55][56][57][58][59] combined SD to multi-objective optimisation modelling to evaluate supply-demand and 3E dynamics. Among them, the ANEMI model [60] consists of an integrated optimisationsimulation model that solves an optimal allocation problem within each simulation time step without considering future projections (i.e., it generates an endogenous path for energy supply).…”

Section: Descriptive Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Among them, the ANEMI model [60] consists of an integrated optimisationsimulation model that solves an optimal allocation problem within each simulation time step without considering future projections (i.e., it generates an endogenous path for energy supply). Also, Daneshzand et al [58], Wu and Xu [56], and Eker et al [61] considered multi-objective optimisation methods to find optimal values of policy variables. Karunathilake et al [59] employed a fuzzy optimisation approach to find optimal energy mixes according to different performance objectives, which were used as input in their life-cyclebased SD model.…”

Section: Descriptive Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

Dall-Orsoletta¹,

Maldonado²,

Dranka³

et al. 2022

IJSEPM

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The problem of techno-economic approaches to evaluating energy transition pathways has been constantly reported in the literature. Existing research recognises the critical role played by social aspects in energy systems models. System dynamics (SD) has been pointed out among modelling techniques as a suitable tool to evaluate the interdisciplinary nature of energy transitions. This paper explores how energy system-related SD models have incorporated social aspects through a literature review. Models were assessed based on their geographical resolution, time horizon, methodological approach, and main themes: supply-demand, energy-economy-environment (3E), energy-transport, water-energy-food (WEF) nexus, and consumer-centric and socio-political dynamics. Social aspects considered include behaviour and lifestyle changes, social acceptance, willingness to participate, socio-economic measures, among others. As expected, the representation of social aspects was not standard among the papers analysed. Socio-economic aspects were most commonly included in supply-demand and 3E models. Energy-transport and WEF models mainly incorporated changes in travel and consumption habits, respectively. The last theme had a more diverse approach to social aspects that deserves further attention, especially for energy access and justice issues. Other research lines include modelling approaches combination, enhanced participatory and transparent processes during model development, and use of SD models in policy-aiding and stakeholders’ information processes.

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Section: Descriptive Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Descriptive Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

Dall-Orsoletta¹,

Maldonado²,

Dranka³

et al. 2022

IJSEPM

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The priority of sectors for NG allocation determined as injection, export, and power plant Not using uncertainties in utility function Zhang et al [49] Analyzing the effect of domestic NG price increase on the overall economy index Chemical industry will be most influenced by any NG price increase Lack of comparability with similar research Daneshzand et al [50] Sustainability of domestic NG supply on providing financial capital Energy price is one of the main variables directly influencing energy demand and supply Not using pricing policy tools Daneshzand et al [51] Optimal allocation of natural gas to various demand sectors Residential sector should have a much smaller share and the export sector a much larger share of the consumption sector…”

Section: Not Considering the Budget Limitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Allocation of Gas Resources to Different Consumption Sectors Using Multi-Objective Goal Programming

Meidutė‐Kavaliauskienė

Davidavičienė

Ghorbani

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Natural gas is a main source of energy in Iran, and optimal allocation to different sectors is crucial, based on realities, geopolitical considerations, and national security concerns. In this paper, a multi-objective goal programming model is developed to study the optimal allocation of this resource to various consumption sectors, including household business, industry, petrochemical industry, power plants, injection to oil fields, and export from Iran for the horizon of 2025. In this research, the energy security index is prioritized over other indicators. Two objective functions are considered: the first is maximizing the energy security index (minimizing the cost of energy security), and the second is minimizing the relative weight of different consumption sectors. The goal share of the various gas sectors, the amount of consumption of the various consumption sectors, and the allocatable and predicted amount for each year is calculated. Household business, power plants, petrochemical industries, industry, and export aid injection to oil fields are the most consuming sectors in 2025, respectively. Also, based on cost minimization, power plants, petrochemical industries, and industries in general are the more consuming sectors, respectively.

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“…They suggested an SD scheme to discuss water–food security utilizing the WEF nexus method and claimed that combined policy had some undeniable impacts on Gavkhuni basin’s water conservation. In further research, Daneshzand et al 19 determined a nominal consumption share of each demand sector through a novel pricing approach. They also concluded that the local sector has a trivial share, whereas transportation has a relatively larger share of the recommended pattern in 2040.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Efficacy of energy consumption policy in Iranian National Gas Company: System dynamics approach

Alikhani

Vahdat

Owlia

2021

Energy & Environment

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The ever-increasing global demand for energy, oil production/supply and the necessity for alternative approaches regarding energy harvesting have opened a deeper horizon for natural gas utilization. The complexity of the demand–supply match of natural gas and the lack of an optimal pattern of energy consumption have been daunting tasks for the energy decision-makers in the last century. Although laws regarding energy efficiency are formulated and even implemented in some cases, there was no benchmarking analysis which takes all useful indexes into account until recently. However, in this article, by identifying the factors affecting the pattern of gas consumption through the system dynamic approach, regulations associated with productivity are assessed. For this, a regional dynamic integrated gas model is developed. The model effectiveness in handling the system dynamism and various scenarios are investigated through a real case study in Yazd—a central province of Iran—to ascertain the proposed approach. The results show that the developed targeted subsidy law is effective in the household sector. Despite the fact that the thorough implementation of the energy efficiency regulations has positive environmental and economic impacts, these regulations have not been fully implemented in many cases and do not have the required efficiency in the industry sector.

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A system dynamics model for optimal allocation of natural gas to various demand sectors

Cited by 18 publications

References 40 publications

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

review of social dynamics in complex energy systems models

Optimal Allocation of Gas Resources to Different Consumption Sectors Using Multi-Objective Goal Programming

Efficacy of energy consumption policy in Iranian National Gas Company: System dynamics approach

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