A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the <scp>S</scp>nake <scp>R</scp>iver <scp>B</scp>asin

Hoekema, David J.; Sridhar, Venkataramana

doi:10.1111/jawr.12092

Cited by 37 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…Additionally, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) (Liang et al ., ) model is an alternative tool which has been effectively applied to simulate the impacts of climate change, especially for assessing drought conditions (Mishra et al ., ). Therefore, hydrological models can serve as the foundation for evaluating drought conditions regarding various drought indices, management, and mitigation strategies (Narasimhan and Srinivasan, ; Hoekema and Sridhar, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Kang

Sridhar

2017

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Impacts of climate change on the severity and intensity of future droughts can be evaluated based on precipitation and temperature projections, multiple hydrological models, simulated hydrometeorological variables, and various drought indices. The objective of this study was to assess climate change impacts on future drought conditions and water resources in the Chesapeake Bay (CB) watershed. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model were used to simulate a Modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (MPDSI), a Standardized Soil Moisture index (SSI), a Multivariate Standardized Drought Index (MSDI), along with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models for both historical and future periods (f1: 2020-2049, f2: 2050-2079). The results of the SSI suggested that there was a general increase in agricultural droughts in the entire CB watershed because of increases in surface and groundwater flow and evapotranspiration. However, MPDSI and MSDI showed an overall decrease in projected drought occurrences due to the increases in precipitation in the future. The results of this study suggest that it is crucial to use multiple modeling approaches with specific drought indices that combine the effects of both precipitation and temperature changes.(KEY TERMS: drought projection; climate change; drought indices; hydrologic models.) Kang, Hyunwoo and Venkataramana Sridhar, 2018. Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Kang

Sridhar

2017

J American Water Resour Assoc

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“…) version where sub‐grid variability is explicitly defined. This model has been extensively used in our climate change impact assessment studies in many river basins (Hoekema and Sridhar ; Sridhar et al. ; Kang and Sridhar ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For streamflow simulation, we used the VIC 4.2.a (Liang et al 1994) version where sub-grid variability is explicitly defined. This model has been extensively used in our climate change impact assessment JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION studies in many river basins (Hoekema and Sridhar 2013;Sridhar et al 2013;Kang and Sridhar 2018). The VIC model simulates the water and energy fluxes by considering the soil and vegetation parameters, meteorological inputs, and vegetation library.…”

Section: Vic Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia

Sridhar

Modi

Billah

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Despite the advances in climate change modeling, extreme events pose a challenge to develop approaches that are relevant for urban stormwater infrastructure designs and best management practices. The study first investigates the statistical methods applied to the land‐based daily precipitation series acquired from the Global Historical Climatology Network‐Daily (GHCN‐D). Additional analysis was carried out on the simulated Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)‐based downscaled daily extreme precipitation of 15 General Circulation Models and Weather Research and Forecasting‐based hourly extreme precipitation of North American Regional Reanalysis to discern the return period of 24‐hr and 48‐hr events. We infer that the GHCN‐D and MACA‐based precipitation reveals increasing trends in annual and seasonal extreme daily precipitation. Both BCC‐CSM1‐1‐m and GFDL‐ESM2M models revealed that the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase between 2016 and 2099. We conclude that the future scenarios show an increase in magnitudes of extreme precipitation up to three times across southeastern Virginia resulting in increased discharge rates at selected gauge locations. The depth‐duration‐frequency curve predicted an increase of 2–3 times in 24‐ and 48‐h precipitation intensity, higher peaks, and indicated an increase of up to 50% in flood magnitude in future scenarios.

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“…There are many examples, both peer-reviewed [52][53][54][55][56][57][58] or presented at conferences [59][60][61]. Two illustrative cases dealing with groundwater management planning are shown, one in the Tenggeli Desert region, China, using qualitative causal loop diagramming [62], and another in the Palouse region, USA, which created a quantitative model to estimate groundwater drawdown rates useful for regional water planning and management [63].…”

Section: Hydrology and Water Resource Managementmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles

et al. 2016

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Contemporary issues in agriculture and natural resource management (AGNR) span a wide spectrum of challenges and scales-from global climate change to resiliency in national and regional food systems to the sustainability of livelihoods of small-holder farmers-all of which may be characterized as complex problems. With rapid development of tools and technologies over the previous half century (e.g., computer simulation), a plethora of disciplines have developed methods to address individual components of these multifaceted, complex problems, oftentimes neglecting unintended consequences to other systems. A systems thinking approach is needed to (1) address these contemporary AGNR issues given their multi-and interdisciplinary aspects; (2) utilize a holistic perspective to accommodate all of the elements of the problem; and (3) include qualitative and quantitative techniques to incorporate "soft" and "hard" elements into the analyses. System dynamics (SD) methodology is uniquely suited to investigate AGNR given their inherently complex behaviors. In this paper, we review applications of SD to AGNR and discuss the potential contributions and roles of SD in addressing emergent problems of the 21st century. We identified numerous SD cases applied to water, soil, food systems, and smallholder issues. More importantly, several case studies are shown illustrating the tradeoffs between short-term and long-term strategies and the pitfalls of relying on quick fixes to AGNR problems (known as "fixes that backfire" and "shifting the burden", well-known, commonly occurring, systemic structures-or archetypes-observed across numerous management situations [Senge, P.M. The Fifth Discipline, 1st ed.; Doubleday: New York, NY, USA, 1990.]). We conclude that common attempts to alleviate AGNR problems, across continents and regardless of the type of resources involved, have suffered from reliance on short-term management strategies. To effectively address AGNR problems, longer-term thinking and strategies aimed at fundamental solutions will be needed to better identify and minimize the often delayed, and unintended, consequences arising from feedback between management interventions and AGNR systems.

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A System Dynamics Model for Conjunctive Management of Water Resources in the Snake River Basin

Cited by 37 publications

References 46 publications

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Assessment of Future Drought Conditions in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Precipitation Extremes and Flood Frequency in a Changing Climate in Southeastern Virginia

System Dynamics Modeling for Agricultural and Natural Resource Management Issues: Review of Some Past Cases and Forecasting Future Roles

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