A System Dynamics Model and Analytic Network Process: An Integrated Approach to Investigate Urban Resilience

Abstract

During the last decade, the concept of urban resilience has been increasingly implemented in urban planning, with the main aim to design urban development strategies. Urban resilience is a multi-dimensional and dynamic concept. When applied to urban planning, it consists of studying cities as complex socio-economic systems. Municipalities are currently working to undertake appropriate actions to enrich the resilience of cities. Moreover, several difficulties concern the evaluation of the impacts over time of the strategies designed to enhance urban resilience. The present paper proposes an integrated approach based on the System Dynamics Model (SDM) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP). The objective of this research is to describe the method and to illustrate its application to the area called Basse di Stura, located in the city of Turin, Italy. The method is applied to evaluate the possible impacts of two different urban scenarios in terms of the change of urban resilience performance over time. The final result is represented by an index that describes urban resilience performance.

Evolution and Prediction of Landscape Patterns in the Qinghai Lake Basin

“…This approach is an integration of two main procedures: system dynamic (SD) and CA modeling. The SD model is grounded on feedback concepts to manage non-linear, multi-loop, and time-lag characteristics of complex dynamic systems [40] and is widely used to estimate the future land use demand under various socio-environmental changes [41]. The CA model is used to allocate the future LULC through an integrated mechanism designed to process the complex interactions among the different LULC types [42].…”

Towards Decision-Making for the Assessment and Prioritization of Green Projects: An Integration between System Dynamics and Participatory Modeling

“…This methodology, initially introduced by Forrester [17] for industrial problems and the compression of strategic processes, has also been successfully applied, since the 1960s, to the study of urban development. It gave rise to what has been known as the Urban Dynamics and, analogously, Regional Dynamics [18] methods, with which it was possible to build tools to assist in the planning and decision-making processes at the urban, regional and rural levels.…”

“…In recent decades, a growing number of SDM applications, such as transport [23], land use [24], environmental management [25], waste management [26], and sustainable urban development [18], have been recognized in the literature. Recently, the research presented in Castrillón-Gómez, Olivar-Tost, Valencia-Calvo [27], suggests that it is possible to model-in a participatory way-the socio-environmental and economic dynamics of a community concerning the uses that it makes of water and land, in order to select and prioritize the green projects that are planned to be implemented within it.…”

Systems Dynamics and the Analytical Network Process as A methodology for the Evaluation and Prioritization of Green Projects: A New Proposal that Involves Participative Integration

“…In this way, the proposed socio-economic and environmental system allows interpret and integrate citizen factors within a model in System Dynamics which absorbs, adapts and answers that factors determined specifically for the community, through participatory workshops that were created by the Participatory Rural Diagnosis methodology [9], [10]. So far there are few applications where the modelling methodologies in system dynamics are integrated with the multicriteria evaluation ANP [11], and it has not yet been possible to find any related to the evaluation and prioritization of projects.…”