A Synthesis of Spatial Models for Multivariate Count Responses

Wang, Yiyi; Kockelman, Kara M.; Jamali, Amir

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-50590-9_14

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 54 publications

(51 reference statements)

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“…On the other hand, it is possible that associations between independent variables and the dependent variable is not consistent across all observations. Several observed and unobserved factors associated with crash frequency might lead to unobserved heterogeneity (34)(35)(36)(37)(38). To address the heterogeneity with random parameters, using simulated maximum likelihood estimation, Greene (32) developed an approach to model random parameters in the Poisson model.…”

Section: Modeling Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extracting Useful Information from Basic Safety Message Data: An Empirical Study of Driving Volatility Measures and Crash Frequency at Intersections

Kamrani

Arvin

2018

Transportation Research Record

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With the emergence of high-frequency connected and automated vehicle data, analysts can extract useful information from them. To this end, the concept of “driving volatility” is defined and explored as deviation from the norm. Several measures of dispersion and variation can be computed in different ways using vehicles’ instantaneous speed, acceleration, and jerk observed at intersections. This study explores different measures of volatility, representing newly available surrogate measures of safety, by combining data from the Michigan Safety Pilot Deployment of connected vehicles with crash and inventory data at several intersections. For each intersection, 37 different measures of volatility were calculated. These volatilities were then used to explain crash frequencies at intersection by estimating fixed and random parameter Poisson regression models. Given that volatility reflects the degree to which vehicles move, erratic movements are expected to increase crash risk. Results show that an increase in three measures of driving volatility are positively associated with higher intersection crash frequency, controlling for exposure variables and geometric features. More intersection crashes were associated with higher percentages of vehicle data points (speed & acceleration) lying beyond threshold-bands. These bands were created using mean plus two standard deviations. Furthermore, a higher magnitude of time-varying stochastic volatility of vehicle speeds when they pass through the intersection is associated with higher crash frequencies. These measures can be used to locate intersections with high driving volatilities. A deeper analysis of these intersections can be undertaken, and proactive safety countermeasures considered to enhance safety.

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