A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part I: Structure, Dynamics, and Seasonal Evolution

Lanicci, John M.; Warner, Thomas T.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1991)006<0198:ascote>2.0.co;2

Cited by 46 publications

(29 citation statements)

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“…First, we hypothesize that the change of steep lapse rates in mid-levels of the troposphere is tied to changes in the seasonal evolution of the elevated mixed layer, which forms over source regions in Mexico and the western U.S., and is subsequently advected eastward. 42 Stronger surface heating at higher elevations, tied to aridification and earlier snowmelt, 43 could result in elevated mixed layers appearing earlier in the season and more frequently, increasing the probability of large hail events as severe thunderstorms form in these elevated-mixed-layer environments. 44 Second, we hypothesize that there are more favorable background or synoptic-scale patterns for increased instability and vertical wind shear in the Northeast, the reasons for which warrant further investigation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in United States large hail environments and observations

2019

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Understanding trends in large hail-producing environments is an important component of estimating hail risk. Here, we use two environmental parameters, the Large Hail Parameter and the Significant Hail Parameter, to assess trends in days with environments conducive for hail ≥5 cm. From 1979 to 2017, there has been an increase in days with favorable large hail environments in central and eastern portions of the U.S. This increase has been driven primarily by an increasing frequency of days with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates and necessary combinations of instability and vertical wind shear for severe thunderstorms. Annual large hail environment area is significantly, positively correlated with (1) large hail report area east of the Rocky Mountains, and (2) large hail radar-derived area in the Midwest and Northeast. This evidence suggests that there may be an environmental fingerprint on increasing large hail risk and expanding this risk eastward.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in United States large hail environments and observations

2019

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“…Oftentimes this process distorts the shape and structure of the CIN layer, sometimes completely eliminating a stable layer that can be critical for inhibiting convective development. This tendency can be very evident over the Great Plains of the United States, where elevated mixed layers create strong cap-ping inversions with some regularity during the warm season (Carlson et al 1983;Lanicci and Warner 1991). When the LCL is close to the top of a convective boundary layer, within which turbulent mixing is parameterized separately in the model, the combination of convection and turbulence parameterizations can effectively mix moisture out of the boundary layer up toward the shallow cloud top while mixing high-air downward into the boundary layer.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Properties of the Convection Scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that Affect Forecast Sounding Interpretation

2002

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The impact of parameterized convection on Eta Model forecast soundings is examined. The Betts-Miller-Janjić parameterization used in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model introduces characteristic profiles of temperature and moisture in model soundings. These specified profiles can provide misleading representations of various vertical structures and can strongly affect model predictions of parameters that are used to forecast deep convection, such as convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. The specific procedures and tendencies of this parameterization are discussed, and guidelines for interpreting Eta Model soundings are presented.

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“…This supports the statement of Piper et al (2019) that convective predisposition is decisively influenced by the state of mid-tropospheric flow steering the large-scale thermodynamic and dynamic conditions relevant for convection. Flow patterns, for example, associated with advection of warm air masses at low levels from southwesterly regions from Spain to France and central Europe in combination with an elevated mixed layer (Carlson et al, 1983;Lanicci and Warner, 1991) and a Spanish plume event (Morris, 1986;van Delden, 2001;Piper, 2017) often produce a conducive environment for the development of (severe) thunderstorms (Kunz et al, 2018;Piper et al, 2019).…”

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Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

Mohr

Wandel

Lenggenhager

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A statistically significant link is presented between atmospheric blocking located over the eastern North Atlantic and northern Europe and warm‐season thunderstorm activity over western and central Europe. Lightning data from 2001 to 2014 were used to identify thunderstorm days and blocking events were extracted from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis using an objective identification algorithm. The statistical link between the two phenomena is established through odds ratio analysis. Two areas – one over the eastern part of the North Atlantic and one over the Baltic Sea – were identified as locations where blocking influences the occurrence of deep moist convection in parts of western and central Europe. Based on the mean ambient conditions on days with blocking in these two areas, well‐known dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms supporting or suppressing the development of thunderstorms were confirmed. The anticyclonic circulation of a block over the eastern part of the North Atlantic leads to a northerly to northwesterly advection of dry and stable air masses into Europe on the eastern flank of the block. In addition, these environmental conditions are on average associated with large‐scale subsidence of air masses (convection‐inhibiting conditions). In contrast, the southerly to southwesterly advection of warm, moist and unstable air masses on the western flank of a block over the Baltic Sea results in convection‐favouring conditions over western and central Europe. Both blocking situations are on average associated with weak wind speeds at mid‐tropospheric levels and with weak wind shear. As a consequence, thunderstorms related to atmospheric blocking over the Baltic Sea tend to be on average less organised.

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A Synoptic Climatology of the Elevated Mixed-Layer Inversion over the Southern Great Plains in Spring. Part I: Structure, Dynamics, and Seasonal Evolution

Cited by 46 publications

References 0 publications

Trends in United States large hail environments and observations

Trends in United States large hail environments and observations

Properties of the Convection Scheme in NCEP's Eta Model that Affect Forecast Sounding Interpretation

Relationship between atmospheric blocking and warm‐season thunderstorms over western and central Europe

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