A Study on the Prediction of Suitability Change of Forage Crop Italian Ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.) using Spatial Distribution Model

Abstract

Under climate change, it is likely that the suitable area for forage crop cultivation would change in Korea. The potential cultivation areas for italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum L.), which has been considered one of an important forage crop in Korea, were identified using the EcoCrop model. To minimize the uncertainty associated with future projection under climate change, an ensemble approach was attempted using five climate change scenarios as inputs to the EcoCrop model. Our results indicated that most districts had relatively high suitability, e.g., >80, for italian ryegrass in South Korea. Still, suitability of the crop was considerably low in mountainous areas because it was assumed that a given variety of italian ryegrass had limited cold tolerance. It was predicted that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2050s but decrease in 2080s in a relatively large number of regions due to high temperature. In North Korea, suitability of italian ryegrass was considerably low, e.g., 28 on average. Under climate change, however, it was projected that suitability of italian ryegrass would increase until 2080s. For example, suitability of italian ryegrass was more than 80 in 10 districts out of 14 by 2080s. Because cold tolerance of italian ryegrass varieties has been improved, it would be preferable to optimize parameters of the EcoCrop model for those varieties. In addition, it would be possible to grow italian ryegrass as the second crop following rice in Korea in the future. Thus, it merits further study to identify suitable areas for italian ryegrass cultivation after rice using new varieties of italian ryegrass.

Evaluation of the suitability of potato cultivation areas in South Korea based on climate and soil conditions

“…For this reason, we expect that this study provides detail information necessary for potato cultivation. In particular, since CLIMEX uses time-series climate data (monthly average temperature and rainfall), this result has demonstrated the climatic suitability of potatoes based on scientific evidence compared to the potential distribution of potatoes in previous studies [11,13,27]. For example, a previous study used annual climate data to confirm the potential distribution of potatoes [27], so it is difficult to obtain a dynamic potential distribution considering monthly variation of climates.…”

“…Potential areas for apple cultivation have also been investigated [10,11]. Moreover, suitable areas for growing Italian ryegrass have been predicted in Gangwon-do [12] using a spatial distribution model [13]. Because climate change affects crops and their cultivation area [14], suitable growing areas have been identified for southern-type garlic [15], black raspberry [16], and teff and barley [17].…”

A Study on Analyses of the Production Data of Feed Crops and Vulnerability to Climate Impacts According to Climate Change in Republic of Korea

“…In particular, the production of coarse forage is expected to decrease by more than 25%. Given the limited production and cultivation area for coarse forage in Korea, the global decrease in feed supply will serve as a significant factor placing a burden on livestock farmers [7]. In Republic of Korea, a country that depends on foreign sources for its supply of forage crops, the projected decline in forage crop productivity is expected to exacerbate the impact of climate change on the domestic livestock industry [8].…”

“…It is necessary to evaluate the vulnerability to climate change [13,14]. Due to the ongoing climate warming, summer crops have been negatively affected due to high temperatures, while winter crops have been reported to increase productivity per area due to the increasing temperature during the wintering and growing stages [7].…”