A Study on Analyses of the Production Data of Feed Crops and Vulnerability to Climate Impacts According to Climate Change in Republic of Korea

Abstract

According to the climate change scenario, climate change in the Korean Peninsula is expected to worsen due to extreme temperatures, with effects such as rising average temperatures, heat waves, and droughts. In Republic of Korea, which relies on foreign countries for the supply of forage crops, a decrease in the productivity of forage crops is expected to cause increased damage to the domestic livestock industry. In this paper, to solve the issue of climate vulnerability for forage crops, we performed a study to predict the productivity of forage crops in relation to climate change. We surveyed and compiled not only forage crop production data from various regions, but also experimental cultivation production data over several years from reports of the Korea Institute of Animal Science and Technology. Then, we crawled related climate data from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Therefore, we were able to construct a basic database for forage crop production data and related climate data. Using the database, a production prediction model was implemented, applying a multivariate regression analysis and deep learning regression. The key factors were determined as a result of analyzing the changes in forage crop production due to climate change. Using the prediction model, it could be possible to forecast the shifting locations of suitable cultivation areas. As a result of our study, we were able to construct electromagnetic climate maps for forage crops in Republic of Korea. It can be used to present region-specific agricultural insights and guidelines for cultivation technology for forage crops against climate change.