A study of urban thermal environment in Tokyo in summer of the 2030s under influence of global warming

Kikumoto, Hideki; Ooka, Ryozo; Arima, Yusuke

doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2015.07.033

Cited by 29 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The Ministry of the Environment in Japan estimated Tw using the equations proposed by Iribarne and Godson [28]. Kikumoto et al employed the Sprung formula to estimate Tw using the outputs from the WRF model and calculated the WBGT [23]. In this study, Tw was estimated using the same equations employed by the Ministry of the Environment in Japan, using air temperature, absolute humidity, and atmospheric pressure [28,29].…”

Section: Development Of a Methods For Quantitatively Estimating The Hementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Equation (2) was employed by Kikumoto et al to estimate Tg with WRF simulation outputs [23]. The solar radiation to the ground surface and the horizontal wind velocity at 10 m were obtained from WRF simulations and used for S and v, respectively.…”

Section: Development Of a Methods For Quantitatively Estimating The Hementioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the accuracy of the method used to estimate the risk was not validated. Kikumoto et al estimated both the current and near-future incidence rates of heatstroke in the Tokyo metropolitan area [23], and predicted that the incidence rate in August would increase by 63% from the 2000s to the 2030s. However, the effects of population distribution were not discussed, and thus the total number of heatstroke patients in summer was not assessed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan established a heatstroke prevention guideline with WBGT [19], by following International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 7243 [20]. Moreover, several previous studies have estimated the risk of heatstroke in summer using WBGT as a thermal index [21][22][23]. Kusaka et al conducted dynamical downscaling using the WRF model and the pseudo-global-warming data for the 2000s and 2070s [21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heatstroke Risk Predictions for Current and Near-Future Summers in Sendai, Japan, Based on Mesoscale WRF Simulations

et al. 2017

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Abstract:The incidence of heatstroke has been increasing in Japan, and future climate change is likely to increase heatstroke risk. We therefore developed a method to quantify the spatial distribution of outdoor heatstroke risk and predicted future changes in this risk considering the predicted climate change in Sendai, Japan. Heatstroke risk was quantified by assessing hazard, vulnerability and exposure. Daily maximum wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) was selected as the hazard index. The distribution of WBGT was predicted by mesoscale meteorological simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The relationship between daily maximum WBGT and the daily incidence rate was approximated by analyzing emergency transport data. This relationship was selected as the vulnerability index. Using the hazard and vulnerability indices, a spatial distribution of the monthly incidence rate was obtained. Finally, the total number of heatstroke patients per month was estimated by multiplying the monthly incidence rate by the population density. The outdoor heatstroke risk for August was then estimated for current (2000s) and near-future (2030s) climatic conditions in Sendai. WBGT at coastal areas in the 2030s increased owing to increases in humidity, while WBGT at inland areas increased owing to increases in air temperature. This increase in WBGT drove increases in heatstroke risk.

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Section: Development Of a Methods For Quantitatively Estimating The Hementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Development Of a Methods For Quantitatively Estimating The Hementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Heatstroke Risk Predictions for Current and Near-Future Summers in Sendai, Japan, Based on Mesoscale WRF Simulations

et al. 2017

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“…Kusaka et al, , ), and has been used not only for past climate simulations, but also future climate projections (e.g. Kusaka et al, ; Lemonsu et al, ; Kikumoto et al, ), as well as for urban planning strategies (e.g. Adachi et al, ; Iizuka et al, ; Yang et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A climatological validation of urban air temperature and electricity demand simulated by a regional climate model coupled with an urban canopy model and a building energy model in an Asian megacity

Takane

Kikegawa

Hara

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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ABSTRACT:In this study, we validated urban air temperature and electricity demand by a year-round numerical simulation using a regional climate model coupled with an urban canopy model and a building energy model (RCM-UCM+BEM) in the Asian megacity, Osaka, which is the largest metropolis in Japan after Tokyo. The control simulation (CTRL), which was based on the use of central air-conditioning (AC) systems, reproduced the surface air temperatures observed in Osaka City in the summer cooling and interim seasons, but underestimated midnight to morning temperatures by over 2 ∘ C in the winter heating season. In addition, the CTRL significantly overestimated the electricity demand in Osaka City in both the cooling and heating seasons, when the AC load was increased. These errors were likely due to the overestimation of AC use in the CTRL model because, in Japan, central AC systems are not used in business and residential areas, where individual AC units are mainly used. To prevent this overestimation, we introduced three new parameters to consider the use of partial AC systems in the model. The results of the new numerical experiment remarkably reduced the underestimation of temperature and the overestimation of electricity demand. This suggests that the RCM-UCM+BEM modified by this study is effective for not only reproducing the current status of seasonal urban air temperature and electricity demand in Osaka, but also for projecting the future situation in other mega cities.

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An investigation into urban heat mitigation by adopting local climate zones and land surface temperatures in the Tokyo prefecture

O’Malley

Kikumoto

2022

Japan Architectural Review

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This study aimed to investigate urban forms susceptible to heightened heat intensities in the Tokyo Prefecture in Japan. Adopting Landsat 8 data at a pixel resolution of 100 m, local climate zones (LCZ) were identified. LCZs contain urban forms which are primarily defined by building compactness and height. Daytime spatial distribution of land surface temperatures (LST) was provided by MODIS 100 m resolution data from 2013 to 2021. Median LSTs for compact and super high‐rise, high‐rise, mid‐rise, and low‐rise LCZs were 34.4, 35.5, 37.3, and 38.1°C, respectively. Additionally, LSTs for open and super high‐rise, high‐rise, and mid‐rise LCZs were 37.4, 37.5, and 37.1°C, respectively. Therefore, this suggests lower‐rise and open LCZs are prone to increased urban heat intensities and higher‐rise and compact LCZs are an urban heat mitigation strategy. Open mid‐rise also offers heat reduction capabilities. Compact low‐rise and open mid‐rise spatial analysis also confirmed this trend with vegetation indices validating urban configuration as significantly influencing LSTs. Furthermore, due to LSTs constituting heat health risks, 11 municipalities comprised of predominantly compact low‐rise LCZs were identified as a priority for urban heat mitigation. Among these, Nakano, Nerima, and Suginami posed the greatest heat risks.

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A study of urban thermal environment in Tokyo in summer of the 2030s under influence of global warming

Cited by 29 publications

References 26 publications

Heatstroke Risk Predictions for Current and Near-Future Summers in Sendai, Japan, Based on Mesoscale WRF Simulations

Heatstroke Risk Predictions for Current and Near-Future Summers in Sendai, Japan, Based on Mesoscale WRF Simulations

A climatological validation of urban air temperature and electricity demand simulated by a regional climate model coupled with an urban canopy model and a building energy model in an Asian megacity

An investigation into urban heat mitigation by adopting local climate zones and land surface temperatures in the Tokyo prefecture

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