A Study of the Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Migration in Russia

Abstract

Russia has experienced population decline in years and the economic development in Russia is largely restricted by labor shortage, particularly for the Far North and East region. In order to explore the migration mechanisms, six socioeconomic factors were selected to explore the influences on the net migration. Data from the 82 regions covering four time periods (2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015) was processed use spatial panel econometric analysis and the time-period fixed effects Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) was selected as the best fit model after tests. The results indicates that, unemployment and infant death rate are significantly negatively associated with net migration, while urbanization rate, urban scale and life expectancy are significantly positively associated with net migration; every 100 USD increase in per capita GRP (Gross Regional Product) is positively related with averagely 5.4 net migrates in the region; every 1 year increase in life expectancy would increase 1052 net migrates; every 1sqm increase in urban scale would increase the net migrates by 11.75 and every 1% increase in unemployment would lead to a decrease of 0.54 net migrates. Spillover effect was also found for per capita GRP and life expectancy, indicating that the increase of per capita GRP and life expectancy in neighboring regions can also increase the attractiveness in one region. It can be concluded that better job market, better economic status and health related wellbeing are all attracting factors for migrates and these factors can even make the neighborhood region more attractive for immigrates. Considering the ambitious development plan for the Russia Far North and East regions, related suggestions on attracting migrates are provided.

Depopulation And Migration Outflow As A Feature Of Regional Economic Depression

“…Russian and foreign researchers studied the issues of the impact of negative processes in the regional economy on the demographic sphere. Using data on 82 regions of Russia for 2000-2015, Wang et al (2019) show that a decrease in the gross regional product per capita and an increase in unemployment are closely related to the regions' migration outflow. Batunova & Perucca (2020) have analyzed the relationship between demographic and economic development, using indicators for Russia's 78 regions for 1998-2012.…”

Russia in a changing climate

“…Although historically climate has motivated internal migration in Russia (Vakulenko, 2019), warming temperatures may not serve as pull factors to Russia's east and north, given limitations in urban development, transportation infrastructure, and soil quality, distance from Moscow and western Russia, and ineffective financial and policy inducements (Parfenova et al, 2019; Streletskiy et al, 2019; Wang et al, 2019), as well as the still colder‐than‐average climate. Except for Yamalo‐Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Krasnoyarsk Krai, most Arctic regions are experiencing outmigration unlinked to climate change (Katsova, 2022; Khoreva et al, 2018).…”

Migration Attractiveness as a Factor in the Development of the Russian Arctic Mineral Resource Potential

“…These factors make the work related to the development of the resource potential of the Arctic and its territories unattractive to the working population. At the moment, there is an acute personnel problem in the field of mineral resource extraction in the Arctic [38] (p. 1). As the analysis below shows, the Russian Arctic was characterized by an outflow of human resources at the time of this research.…”