A Structural Land‐Use Analysis of Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: A Proactive Approach

Kaminski, Jonathan; Kan, Iddo; Fleischer, Aliza

doi:10.1093/ajae/aas075

Cited by 35 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…A two-step modeling framework is developed where the intercrop differences in the effect of weather on yields and profits drive land use share decisions. Our approach is quite close to that in Kaminski et al (2013). That paper estimated the parameters of a presumed crop technology as a function of weather while we first estimate a reduced-form crop-specific yield-weather relationship.…”

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confidence: 96%

“…So, relocating cropping to less central latitudes would be a viable adaptation response to the detrimental yield impacts of global warming. Several studies have also modeled cropland use change as a function of weather, crop and livestock returns, and government payments (Cho & McCarl, 2017;Kaminski, Kan, & Fleischer, 2013;Mu, McCarl, Sleeter, Abatzoglou, & Zhang, 2018;Mu, McCarl, & Wein, 2013;Mu, Sleeter, Abatzoglou, & Antle, 2017;Rashford et al, 2016). Kaminski et al (2013) estimated a structural model to assess climate impacts on Israel's cropland use changes during 1992-2001.…”

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confidence: 99%

“…The trend-weather interaction terms will evaluate how the impact of weather stressors on yields has evolved over time, while the soil-weather interactions will account for how deficient soils affect the yield impacts of detrimental weather. Kaminski et al (2013) also used the soil-weather interactions to estimate a structural land use model. In addition to these innovations in the yield-weather model, we estimate the unitless yield-weather elasticities to compare the impact of weather outcomes across crop types.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Arora

Feng

Anderson³

et al. 2020

Agricultural Economics

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Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop‐specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather‐driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present‐day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.

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confidence: 96%

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confidence: 99%

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Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Arora

Feng

Anderson³

et al. 2020

Agricultural Economics

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“…Using micro-economic production theory, it is assumed that farmers in a region maximise profits, given exogenous crop prices, variable input prices, and land that can be allocated to the various crops. From this profit maximisation problem, a system of optimal acreage share equations can be derived by equating the shadow price equations for the various crop acreage shares and solving these conditions for the various shares (Moore and Negri, 1992;Wu and Segerson, 1995;Fezzi and Bateman, 2011;Kaminski et al, 2013). Let i or j index crops, where i = 1, .…”

Section: Micro-economic Crop Share Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Biofuel Policies on Crop Acreages in Germany and France

Gardebroek¹,

Reimer²,

Baller³

2017

J Agricultural Economics

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A major concern about biofuels is that increasing biofuel feedstock demand reduces availability of crops for food and feed leading to higher food prices. This paper investigates relations between biofuel policies and prices of rapeseed, the major feedstock used for biodiesel production in Europe, and the impact of rapeseed prices on crop acreages in Germany and France. Biodiesel is an important biofuel in Europe, and Germany and France are the largest biodiesel producers in Europe. First, the various biofuel policies in Germany and France are discussed, followed by an analysis of their effects on rapeseed prices. Although theory indicates that such effects exist, we could not find empirical evidence for them. Second, using regional land use panel data from Germany and France we investigate empirically whether crop shares have been affected by rapeseed prices in the period 2000–2015 and whether these price effects changed because of biofuel policy changes. Results show that wheat shares in Germany and France did respond to rapeseed prices, but barley shares did not. Moreover, mandatory blending introduced in Germany in 2007 and production quotas introduced in France in 2005 led to a stronger effect of rapeseed prices on wheat shares, but again did not affect barley shares.

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“…A growing number of studies have dealt with the impact of climate change on agricultural production and the farming sector (e.g. Mendelsohn et al, 1994;Chang, 2002;Seo and Mendelsohn, 2008;van der Werf, 2008;Wang et al, 2009;Di Falco et al, 2011;Chang et al, 2012;Kaminski et al, 2013;Nelson et al, 2014, Mitter et al, 2015. The effects of climate change on agricultural production would highly depend upon the geographical location of the crop and animal production, with farms in some regions benefi ting (Ghaffari et al, 2002) and farms in other regions suffering adverse effects under new climatic conditions (Jones and Thorton, 2003;Key and Sneeringer, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%