A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. I: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments

MOLTENI, F; BUIZZA, R; Marsigli, Chiara; Montani, A.; NEROZZI, F; Paccagnella, Tiziana

doi:10.1256/smsqj.57611

Cited by 62 publications

(102 citation statements)

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“…The first one aimed at downscaling the global ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS), using the limited-area (LEPS) methodology. Results on four MAP cases Molteni et al, 2001) showed the usefulness of this mesoscale ensemble 839 system in the forecasting of intense precipitation events in the short-to-medium range. This led to the quasioperational implementation of the COSMO-LEPS system at ECMWF, where the LM model of the COSMO consortium is used at a resolution of 10 km.…”

Section: Forecast Uncertainties Predictability and Ensemble Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Alps: The advances achieved by the Mesoscale Alpine Programme

Richard

Buzzi

Zängl³

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

104

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ABSTRACT:The improvement of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in mountainous regions was a major supporting objective of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP) project P1 devoted to the study of orographic precipitation. This paper reviews the main MAP-related achievements regarding QPF improvement and highlights the MAP impact on developing QPF research and planning future operational strategies. Recent results based on MAP case-studies, on data analysis and assimilation, on quantification of model uncertainties, and on model intercomparison and verification substantiate the progress made in recent years in improving model performance in relation to short-range, high-resolution forecasting in complex topography regions, well represented by the European Alps.

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Section: Forecast Uncertainties Predictability and Ensemble Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Alps: The advances achieved by the Mesoscale Alpine Programme

Richard

Buzzi

Zängl³

2007

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

104

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“…A sixclass graupel scheme was used for microphysics, a TKE scheme for turbulence, and a third-order Runge-Kutta method for the dynamics. At the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR) the COSMO model version 4.8 (hereafter referred to as COSMO DLR) was nested into ten representative members of the COSMO-LEPS ensemble prediction system (Molteni et al, 2001). A realistic member was selected for the present intercomparison by visual inspection and application of the displacement and amplitude score (DAS; Keil and Craig, 2009) Initial and boundary data were taken from COSMO-EU analyses.…”

Section: Participating Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: a case‐study from COPS

Barthlott

Burton

Kirshbaum

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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The present study investigates the initiation of precipitating deep convection in an ensemble of convection-resolving mesoscale models. Results of eight different model runs from five non-hydrostatic models are compared for a case of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). An isolated convective cell initiated east of the Black Forest crest in southwest Germany, although convective available potential energy was only moderate and convective inhibition was high. Measurements revealed that, due to the absence of synoptic forcing, convection was initiated by local processes related to the orography. In particular, the lifting by low-level convergence in the planetary boundary layer is assumed to be the dominant process on that day. The models used different configurations as well as different initial and boundary conditions. By comparing the different model performance with each other and with measurements, the processes which need to be well represented to initiate convection at the right place and time are discussed. Besides an accurate specification of the thermodynamic and kinematic fields, the results highlight the role of boundary-layer convergence features for quantitative precipitation forecasts in mountainous terrain.

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“…In a similar way, the regional EPS at the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC; Li et al, 2008) applies the perturbations from the MSC global EPS with moist targeted SVs. The COnsortium for Small scale MOdeling Limitedarea Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS; Molteni et al, 2001;Marsigli et al, 2008) follows a strategy of representative members to downscale the ECMWF EPS, in which the representative members are chosen from clusters of ECMWF EPS forecasts. Other methods for generation of initial uncertainty are used as well, such as employing analyses from different forecast centres, like multianalysis short-range EPS (SREPS) at the Spanish Met Service, INM (Garcia-Moya et al, 2010), poor man's EPS (PEPS) at the German Weather Service (DWD; Denhard, pers.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

Wang

Belluš

Wittmann

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. I: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments

Cited by 62 publications

References 0 publications

Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Alps: The advances achieved by the Mesoscale Alpine Programme

Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Alps: The advances achieved by the Mesoscale Alpine Programme

Initiation of deep convection at marginal instability in an ensemble of mesoscale models: a case‐study from COPS

The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

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