The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

Wang, Yong; Belluš, Martin; Wittmann, Christoph; Steinheimer, Martin; Weidle, Florian; Kann, Alexander; Ivatek-Šahdan, Stjepan; Tian, Wenxi; Ma, Xulin; Tascu, Simona; Bazile, Éric

doi:10.1002/qj.751

Cited by 92 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 63 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…In addition, parameterization schemes that are appropriate at coarse resolutions may be inadequate for km-scale or sub-km-scale simulations, in particular for ABL mixing [232]. These considerations point to the need of complementing high-resolution forecasts with an evaluation of their uncertainty and explain the increasing efforts devoted to the development of limited-area ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) [233][234][235][236][237].…”

Section: Stochastic Boundary-layer Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exchange Processes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Mountainous Terrain

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The exchange of heat, momentum, and mass in the atmosphere over mountainous terrain is controlled by synoptic-scale dynamics, thermally driven mesoscale circulations, and turbulence. This article reviews the key challenges relevant to the understanding of exchange processes in the mountain boundary layer and outlines possible research priorities for the future. The review describes the limitations of the experimental study of turbulent exchange over complex terrain, the impact of slope and valley breezes on the structure of the convective boundary layer, and the role of intermittent mixing and wave-turbulence interaction in the stable boundary layer. The interplay between exchange processes at different spatial scales is discussed in depth, emphasizing the role of elevated and ground-based stable layers in controlling multi-scale interactions in the atmosphere over and near mountains. Implications of the current understanding of exchange processes over mountains towards the improvement of numerical weather prediction and climate models are discussed, considering in particular the representation of surface boundary conditions, the parameterization of sub-grid-scale exchange, and the development of stochastic perturbation schemes.

show abstract

Section: Stochastic Boundary-layer Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exchange Processes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Mountainous Terrain

et al. 2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…It uses the spectral limited area model ALADIN (Wang et al, 2006) in order to produce 17 ensemble members (16 perturbed members, 1 control). The perturbations for the initial conditions of the 16 ensemble members are composed by a large scale part using 16 ECMWF EPS members which are created with the singular vector method (Leutbecher and Palmer, 2008) and a small scale component derived with the breeding technique (Wang et al, 2011). Both perturbations are finally combined by applying a spectral blending procedure (Brozkova et al, 2001).…”

Section: The Limited Area Ensemble System Aladin-laefmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Model errors are taken into account by a multi-physics approach. A detailed description of the ALADIN-LAEF system can be found in Wang et al (2011). …”

Section: The Limited Area Ensemble System Aladin-laefmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The three-dimensional wind analyses are based on NWP forecast fields as a first guess and observations to correct them. Operationally, the deterministic limited area model ALADIN-AUSTRIA is used, which runs on 9.6 km horizontal resolution with 60 vertical levels (Wang et al, 2006). ZAMG operates about 250 automated weather stations (Teilautomatisches Wetterstationsnetz, TAWES) in Austria.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

On the skill of various ensemble spread estimators for probabilistic short range wind forecasting

Kann

2012

Adv. Sci. Res.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract.A variety of applications ranging from civil protection associated with severe weather to economical interests are heavily dependent on meteorological information. For example, a precise planning of the energy supply with a high share of renewables requires detailed meteorological information on high temporal and spatial resolution. With respect to wind power, detailed analyses and forecasts of wind speed are of crucial interest for the energy management. Although the applicability and the current skill of state-of-the-art probabilistic short range forecasts has increased during the last years, ensemble systems still show systematic deficiencies which limit its practical use. This paper presents methods to improve the ensemble skill of 10-m wind speed forecasts by combining deterministic information from a nowcasting system on very high horizontal resolution with uncertainty estimates from a limited area ensemble system. It is shown for a one month validation period that a statistical post-processing procedure (a modified non-homogeneous Gaussian regression) adds further skill to the probabilistic forecasts, especially beyond the nowcasting range after +6 h.

show abstract

“…In these convection-permitting ensembles, an intermediate resolution REPS is typically used to transfer the information in a chain of forecasts from the coarse-resolution global EPS to the high-resolution REPS. Although dynamical downscaling is attractive for its simplicity and good performance, the regional small-scale uncertainties cannot be explicitly represented with dynamical downscaling but just following the governance of the global ensemble that is driving it [12]. Some other studies try to generate IC perturbations for REPS by using a regional version of traditional IC perturbation methods, such as the Breeding Growing Mode (BGM), Singular Vectors (SVs), Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF), etc.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparison of ETKF and Downscaling in a Regional Ensemble Prediction System

et al. 2015

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Based on the operational regional ensemble prediction system (REPS) in China Meteorological Administration (CMA), this paper carried out comparison of two initial condition perturbation methods: an ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) and a dynamical downscaling of global ensemble perturbations. One month consecutive tests are implemented to evaluate the performance of both methods in the operational REPS environment. The perturbation characteristics are analyzed and ensemble forecast verifications are conducted; furthermore, a TC case is investigated. The main conclusions are as follows: the ETKF perturbations contain more power at small scales while the ones derived from downscaling contain more power at large scales, and the relative difference of the two types of perturbations on scales become smaller with forecast lead time. The growth of downscaling perturbations is more remarkable, and the downscaling perturbations have larger magnitude than ETKF perturbations at all forecast lead times. However, the ETKF perturbation variance can represent the forecast error variance better than downscaling. Ensemble forecast verification shows slightly higher skill of downscaling ensemble over ETKF ensemble. A TC case study indicates that the overall performance of the two systems OPEN ACCESSAtmosphere 2015, 6 342 are quite similar despite the slightly smaller error of DOWN ensemble than ETKF ensemble at long range forecast lead times.

show abstract

The Central European limited‐area ensemble forecasting system: ALADIN‐LAEF

Cited by 92 publications

References 63 publications

Exchange Processes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Mountainous Terrain

Exchange Processes in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Mountainous Terrain

On the skill of various ensemble spread estimators for probabilistic short range wind forecasting

A Comparison of ETKF and Downscaling in a Regional Ensemble Prediction System

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About