A stochastic model for predicting the stage emergence of Plutella xylostellaunder field conditions

Abstract

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella, is a worldwide pest of brassicas, and its biology and ecology have been extensively studied over recent years. Despite the importance of mathematical models to the management of insect pests, no stochastic model has been developed to date for P. xylostella. In this context, the study aimed to develop a stochastic model capable of describing the stage emergence of P. xylostella under field conditions. The stochastic model was developed using simple nonlinear functions based on the laboratory data on development times under constant temperatures. Comparison between estimated and observed cumulative proportions of egg hatch, pupation and adult emergence recorded in the field in Southern Brazil shows that the model accurately describes the stage emergence of P. xylostella. The developed model shows potential to estimate the stage emergence of P. xylostella under field conditions, and can add significant advances to the management of this pest.

Temperature‐dependent development models describing the effects of temperature on the development of Spodoptera eridania

“…The use of mathematical models for pest management purposes can have some limitations and difficulties. For example, accurate predictions of an insect's life stages in the field depend on determining an appropriate date to begin the accumulation of development rates 63,17 . In the case of S. eridania , field experiments found that females usually lay their eggs on yellow nonwoven fabric attached to stakes slightly higher than the plant canopy.…”

“…Given that these thermal thresholds vary among species, selecting a model that best describes the temperature‐dependent development rate is an important step in understanding how the species responds to variations in temperature 16 . Once the best‐fit model has been selected, insect development can be simulated under field conditions using temperature time series data 17 .…”

Synthesis and Field Evaluation of the Sex Pheromone of Plutella xylostella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae) in Canola (Brassica napus L.)

“…Considering that females of P. xylostella usually mate and oviposit in the first 24 h of life (Talekar and Shelton, 1993), the first capture in pheromone-baited trap can be used as the date to begin rate summation to apply the stochastic model proposed by Marchioro et al (2016). This model accurately estimates the larval emergence of P. xylostella under field conditions in southern Brazil and could offer a promising tool for Integrated Pest Management purposes, although it has to be tested in canola at these latitudes.…”

Temperature-Dependent Development Models Describing the Effects of Temperature on the Development of the Fall Armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae)

“…In another study, the nonlinear model predicted a decrease of up to 33.1% in the number of generations of S. cosmioides in warmer regions where temperatures often exceeded the optimum temperature required for the species' survival [54]. The application of mathematical models in pest management might encounter several limitations, including the prediction accuracy of the life stage of the insect in the field and ambiguity in selecting a suitable date to start estimating the development rates [55]. Another potential limitation is associated with the practical application of the model for different crops.…”