A stochastic metapopulation state-space approach to modeling and estimating Covid-19 spread

Abstract

Mathematical models are widely recognized as an important tool for analyzing and understanding the dynamics of infectious disease outbreaks, predict their future trends, and evaluate public health intervention measures for disease control and elimination. We propose a novel stochastic metapopulation state-space model for COVID-19 transmission, based on a discrete-time spatiotemporal susceptible/exposed/infected/recovered/deceased (SEIRD) model. The proposed framework allows the hidden SEIRD states and unknown transmission parameters to be estimated from noisy, incomplete time series of reported epidemiological data, by application of unscented Kalman filtering (UKF), maximum-likelihood adaptive filtering, and metaheuristic optimization. Experiments using both synthetic data and real data from the Fall 2020 Covid-19 wave in the state of Texas demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. Keywords epidemic model• SEIRD model • nonlinear stochastic model • unscented Kalman filter • maximum likelihood • adaptive filtering • parameter estimation