A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics: Kondratieff Waves, Kuznets Swings, Juglar and Kitchin Cycles in Global Economic Development, and the 2008–2009 Economic Crisis

Abstract

C. Reduced spectra for spectra 1 and 2 of Fig. 2A, excluding the autocorrelation D. Reduced spectra for spectra 1 and 2 of Fig. 2B (with excluded values for 1914-1946) 21 Dynamics of this variable has been calculated by Yustislav Bozhevolnov (Moscow State University, Department of Physics) with the World Bank database through dividing of the world gross fixed capital formation indicator (in constant international 2000 dollars) for a given year by the world GDP (in constant international 2000 dollars) for the same year. 22 Dynamics of this variable has been calculated by Yustislav Bozhevolnov. Note: Maddison-based empirical estimates with fitted LOWESS (=LOcally WEighted Scatterplot Smoothing) line. Kernel: Triweight. % of points to fit: 20.

Parametric Identification of the Dynamics of Inter-Sectoral Balance: Modelling and Forecasting

“…Then, coming back to the previous step, we start recalculations, as long as all the harmonics become significant. When we find four significant harmonics, Kondratieff's wave (k = 1), Kuznets' wave (k = 3), Juglar's wave (k = 6), and the wave that equals half the period of the Kondratieff wave (k = 2), then we conclude that the number of all sectors is five, that is, n = 4 harmonics plus 1 trend [7]. Thus, the economy must be divided into five sectors.…”

“…, are adjusted to high imitation and prediction properties, then the total trajectories (7) should have the same properties. Following [10], we assume that the trajectory of the dynamical system is represented by an additive combination of its components:…”

“…One feature of the dynamical Leontief model is that it can be considered as taking into account the cyclical nature of the macroeconomic processes, typical for developed countries of Western Europe, USA, Canada, Japan, and others [6,7]. According to statistical analysis, their economic growth (upturn phase) alternates with the processes of stagnation and decline in production volumes (downturn phase), i.e., a decline in all the economic activity.…”

An energy-based macroeconomic model validated by global historical series since 1820

“…To study the relations between energy consumption and GDP, yearly data are requested, or at least data at a regular decennial or half-decennial frequency. Thus, several scholars used the Maddison Project databases by year and country to establish yearly global GDP data, from 1870 51 , or 1820 23 . Gapminder 52 , a well-established statistician enterprise founded by the late Hans Rosling, tackled the task of completing Maddison project database using also other sources: they recently released a new set of data 53 .…”

Global Inflation Dynamics: regularities & forecasts

“…The forecasted dollar crisis is likely to act as that very shock that will explode the price stability at the global level and will unleash the spiral of global inflation. Thus, if adequate measures are not taken, one may expect a surge of inflation around the end of this year that may also mark the start of stagflation as there are no sufficient grounds to expect the re-start of the dynamic growth of the world economy by that time (see, e.g., Akaev, Sadovnichy, Korotayev 2012;Akaev, Fomin, Korotayev 2011;Korotayev, Tsirel 2010;Korotayev, Zinkina, Bogevolnov 2011). On the other hand, as the experience of the 1970s and the 1980s indicates, the stagflation consequences can only be eliminated with great difficulties and at a rather high cost, because the combination of low levels of economic growth and employment with high inflation leads to a sharp decline in consumption, aggravating the economic depression.…”