A Socioeconomic Model for the Prediction of Societal Rates of Property Theft

Crime in the Republic of Ireland: Statistical Trends and their Interpretation.

“…The one anomaly is larceny of vehicles, which is influenced by trend in the 1950s nearly as much as in the 1970s. This suggests that a pattern similar to that identified by Mansfield et al (1974) in Norway and the United States is operative in Ireland-substantial increases in offence levels are recorded in the initial period of scarcity of automobiles, followed after a saturation point is reached by a second upsurge, corresponding to an increase in larcenies by juveniles in periods of mass availability of automobiles.…”

“…The notion that the organisation of crime in a particular society (Gould, 1971), or in sub-areas of cities (Boggs, 1965) is a reflection of the social organisation of the setting has also been made using the analogy to a market place. In this view, variation in the prevalence of types of crime are to be understood as responses to a set of market mechanisms that are interconnected with those of the larger economy: "crime rates (at least for property crime) are not affected by individual criminality, but by variation in the supply of stealable goods, as well as the demand for goods to be stolen" (Mansfield et al, 1974). The market place for crime, so defined, is governed by long-term changes in the abundance of property, which determines the profitability of crime as an economic activity.…”

“…A more precise measure of the relationship between property availability and crime levels can be obtained if the focus is narrowed to the offence of motor vehicle larceny. For that offence, it is possible to trace changes in abundance, changes that Gould (1971) and Mansfield et al (1974) argue govern the market conditions to which amateur and professional car thieves respond. They argue, and produce data from the United States and Norway which confirms that laws of supply and demand act to establish a clear sequencing in the trends for the level of motor vehicle larceny.…”

Crime Trends in Western Europe from 1990 to 2000

“…Incidentally, Switzerland is one of the only three countries that registered slightly lower rates of robbery in 2000 than in 1990. 7 The idea that hot products go through a life cycle of vulnerability was first put forward by Gould (1969) and developed lately by Mansfield, Gould and Namenwirth (1974), Felson (1997), and Guerette and Clarke (2003). According to the latter: "At first, these products attract little theft because they are unfamiliar and relatively unavailable.…”

Does proactive policing make a difference in crime? An implementation of problem‐solving policing in Israel

“…A unique characteristic of MVT (as distinct from other property offenses and indeed from all other offenses) is its most reliable reflection in the formal police criminal statistics of reported offenses (Gould 1969;Higgins 1997;Mansfield et al 1974;Tremblay et al 1994;van Dijk et al 1991). As many victimization surveys have shown, because most MVs are insured against theft and damage to and from third parties, and because insurance companies demand a formal report to the police before authorizing compensation, the percentage of nonreported offenses in this crime category is smaller than in all other personal and property offenses (ABS 1999;Gove et al 1985;MirrleesBlack et al 1998;U.S.…”