A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy

Abstract

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and crosscountry linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.

Semi-Structural VAR and Unobserved Components Models to Estimate Finance-Neutral Output Gap

“…Therefore, the results of the more flexible reduced form model are reported only in Appendix B. (Ermolaev et al (2008), following Kuttner (1994)). It is a backward looking UCM with a Phillips curve, an Okun's law, and a stochastic process relating output gap to capacity utilisation.…”