A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt

Bier, Martin; Brak, Bastiaan

doi:10.1140/epjb/e2015-50621-9

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…Moreover, we test how our results change if the assumption of homogeneous mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is no longer met. This captures the likely scenario that vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are more prone to meet individuals of similar vaccination status rather than opposing vaccination status [46][47][48]. We conceptualize this process by scaling the off-diagonal block matrices indicating offspring caused by vaccinated infecting unvaccinated individuals and vice versa with a constant factor 𝑚 ∈ [0, 1] such that 𝑚 = 1 refers to our base scenario of homogeneous mixing between the two groups, Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Germany's current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated

Maier¹,

Wiedermann²,

Burdinski³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Vaccines are the most powerful pharmaceutical tool to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. While the majority (about 65%) of the German population were fully vaccinated, incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics. At the time, it (i) remains elusive how significant this contribution is and (ii) whether targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may stop the amplification of the ongoing crisis. Here, we estimate that about 67%-76% of all new infections are caused by unvaccinated individuals, implying that only 24%-33% are caused by the vaccinated. Furthermore, we estimate 38%-51% of new infections to be caused by unvaccinated individuals infecting other unvaccinated individuals. In total, unvaccinated individuals are expected to be involved in 8-9 of 10 new infections. We further show that decreasing the transmissibility of the unvaccinated by, e. g. targeted NPIs, causes a steeper decrease in the effective reproduction number R than decreasing the transmissibility of vaccinated individuals, potentially leading to temporary epidemic control. Furthermore, reducing contacts between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals serves to decrease R in a similar manner as increasing vaccine uptake. Taken together, our results contribute to the public discourse regarding policy changes in pandemic response and highlight the importance of combined measures, such as vaccination campaigns and contact reduction, to achieve epidemic control and preventing an overload of public health systems.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Germany's current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated

Maier¹,

Wiedermann²,

Burdinski³

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Vaccinations seem to be particularly effective when the vaccination campaign starts early and with a large number of vaccinated individuals [ 20 ]. Moreover, the realistic models should take into account people’s attitudes to vaccination programs [ 57 , 58 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does Social Distancing Matter for Infectious Disease Propagation? An SEIR Model and Gompertz Law Based Cellular Automaton

Biernacki

Malarz

2022

Entropy

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In this paper, we present stochastic synchronous cellular automaton defined on a square lattice. The automaton rules are based on the SEIR (susceptible → exposed → infected → recovered) model with probabilistic parameters gathered from real-world data on human mortality and the characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 disease. With computer simulations, we show the influence of the radius of the neighborhood on the number of infected and deceased agents in the artificial population. The increase in the radius of the neighborhood favors the spread of the pandemic. However, for a large range of interactions of exposed agents (who neither have symptoms of the disease nor have been diagnosed by appropriate tests), even isolation of infected agents cannot prevent successful disease propagation. This supports aggressive testing against disease as one of the useful strategies to prevent large peaks of infection in the spread of SARS-CoV-2-like diseases.

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“…Moreover, we test how our results change if the assumption of homogeneous mixing between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals is no longer met. This captures the likely scenario that vaccinated and unvaccinated populations are more prone to meet individuals of similar vaccination status rather than opposing vaccination status [46][47][48]. We conceptualize this process by scaling the off-diagonal block matrices indicating offspring caused by vaccinated infecting unvaccinated individuals and vice versa with a constant factor ∈ [0, 1] such that = 1 refers to our base scenario of homogeneous mixing between the two groups, Fig.…”

Section: Fig 2 the Fraction Of New Cases Caused By The Unvaccinated And Vaccinated Population For Varying Age-independent Vaccine Efficacmentioning

confidence: 99%

Germany’s current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated

Maïer

Wiedermann

Burdinski

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Vaccines are the most powerful pharmaceutical tool to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. While the majority (about 65%) of the German population were fully vaccinated, incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics. At the time, it (i) remains elusive how significant this contribution is and (ii) whether targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may stop the amplification of the ongoing crisis. Here, we estimate that about 67%–76% of all new infections are caused by unvaccinated individuals, implying that only 24%–33% are caused by the vaccinated. Furthermore, we estimate 38%–51% of new infections to be caused by unvaccinated individuals infecting other unvaccinated individuals. In total, unvaccinated individuals are expected to be involved in 8–9 of 10 new infections. We further show that decreasing the transmissibility of the unvaccinated by, e. g. targeted NPIs, causes a steeper decrease in the effective reproduction number ℛ than decreasing the transmissibility of vaccinated individuals, potentially leading to temporary epidemic control. Furthermore, reducing contacts between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals serves to decrease ℛ in a similar manner as increasing vaccine uptake. Taken together, our results contribute to the public discourse regarding policy changes in pandemic response and highlight the importance of combined measures, such as vaccination campaigns and contact reduction, to achieve epidemic control and preventing an overload of public health systems.

show abstract

A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt

Cited by 8 publications

References 33 publications

Germany's current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated

Germany's current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated

Does Social Distancing Matter for Infectious Disease Propagation? An SEIR Model and Gompertz Law Based Cellular Automaton

Germany’s current COVID-19 crisis is mainly driven by the unvaccinated

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